TMG Confirms Accuracy of Partial INEC Results for Anambra Gubernatorial Election

November 19, 2013

TMG Confirms Accuracy of Partial INEC
Results for Anambra Gubernatorial Election
November 19th, 2013
Abuja, Nigeria

“Based on the Quick Count methodology, the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG)
can confidently verify that the collation process was done properly and the official
results as announced by INEC on November 18th, 2013 accurately reflect the votes
cast on Election Day at those polling stations which held elections,” said TMG
Chair Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi

The Quick Count methodology allows for the independent verification of the official results
as announced by INEC. Since citizen observers are deployed to a representative random
sample across all three senatorial districts and 21 LGAs, the official results can be
collected from those sampled polling units and added together to estimate the official
INEC result. If the official result as announced by INEC falls within the margin of error of
the Quick Count estimate it means that the official result announced by INEC accurately
reflects the ballot cast at polling units.
Table 1: Comparison of Official INEC Results from November 18th, 2013 with TMG Quick Count
Estimates for Anambra Gubernatorial Election 2013
Political Party
Quick
Count
Estimate
Margin of
Error
Quick Count
Estimate
Range
Official
INEC
Result
Official INEC
Result within
Quick Count
Estimate Range

APC 23.8% 2.4% 21.4% – 26.2% 21.5% Yes
APGA 40.8% 2.8% 37.0% – 43.6% 40.7% Yes
LP 7.9% 2.5% 5.4% – 10.4% 8.7% Yes
PDP 21.4% 2.2% 19.2% – 23.6% 22.1% Yes
Other 19 Parties 2.9% 0.5% 2.4% – 3.4% 3.2% Yes
Rejected Ballots 3.1% 0.5% 2.6% – 3.6% 3.9% No

For each political party the official INEC result falls within the Quick Count estimate range.
For example the official INEC result for Labour Party is 8.7% which falls within the TMG
Quick Count estimated range for Labour Party meaning that the result is independently
verified. It is only if an official INEC results falls far outside the TMG Quick Count
estimated range that TMG cannot independently verify its accuracy.

The TMG Quick Count cannot definitively indicate if APC or PDP is currently in second
place. According to the TMG Quick Count estimates the lowest statistically possible
percent of the vote for APC is 21.4% while the highest statistically possible percent of the
vote for PDP is 23.6%. Because these values overlap statistically APC and PDP are
currently in a tie for second place.
Only INEC declares official results as INEC is the constitutionally mandated body to
conduct all aspects of elections. TMG does not announce official results. It provides
independent verification of the official results as announced by INEC to enhance
transparency and accountability in the electoral process.

As TMG has reported before, the process was not without serious shortcomings, including
most concerning no elections in five wards of Idemili North which is a party stronghold.
These shortcomings undermine public confidence in the electoral process – especially
since many of these issues are not new and have plagued past elections.
TMG Chair Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi said “For the 2015 elections to be credible,

INEC must work in partnership with political parties, civic organizations, and government
bodies to find practical solutions to these problems.”

TMG Media Centre
08033188864 or 08094648891
media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org, or democracywatch@tmgng.org


Verification of INEC Official Results for Anambra

November 19, 2013

Verification of INEC Official Results for
Anambra (as Announced Nov 18th, 2013)
Delivered at Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) National Secretariat on
November 19th, 2013

Distinguished guests, our respected partners, stakeholders, ladies and
gentlemen of the media, on behalf of the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG)
Quick Count Working Group I am delighted to welcome you to this press
conference on our preliminary observation findings for the Anambra
Gubernatorial Election held on Saturday November 16th, 2013.
The Independent National Election Commission (INEC) has now publicly
announced official results for 4,400 of 4,608 of polling stations for the
Anambra Gubernatorial Election. While a date has not yet been publicised,
INEC has announced that supplemental voting for 208 polling units of which
160 are in Idemili North local government area (LGA).
Based on the Quick Count methodology, TMG can confidently verify that
the collation process was done properly and the official results as
announced by INEC on November 18th, 2013 accurately reflect the votes
cast on Election Day at those polling stations which held elections.
The official INEC results for each candidate closely match TMG’s independent
estimates – which are based on polling unit results collected from a
representative random sample of polling units across all three senatorial
districts and all 21 LGAs.
Only INEC declares official results as INEC is the constitutionally mandated
body to conduct all aspects of elections. TMG does not announce official
results. It provides independent verification of the official results as announced
by INEC to enhance transparency and accountability in the electoral process.
As TMG has reported before, the process was not without serious
shortcomings, including:
1. Late arrival of election materials to polling units;
2. No elections in five wards of Idemili North LGA – this issue is particularly
worrisome as Idemili North is a party stronghold;
3. Individuals with voter’s cards were refused accreditation;

4. Simultaneous accreditation and voting (i.e. individuals being allowed to accredit
and vote after accreditation had closed) created the possibility of illegal voting;
and
5. A significant number of voters who left polling units after accreditation did not
return to vote (thereby disenfranchising themselves).
These shortcomings undermine public confidence in the electoral process – especially
since many of these issues are not new and have plagued past elections. For the 2015
elections to be credible, INEC must work in partnership with political parties, civic
organizations, and government bodies to find practical solutions to these problems.

Methodology

TMG is a member of the Global Network of Domestic Election Monitors (GNDEM) as well
as the West African Election Observer Network (WAEON) and conducts all of its citizen
observation efforts in accordance with the “Declaration of Global Principles for
Nonpartisan Election Observation and Monitoring by Citizen Organisations”.
TMG’s innovative Quick Count observation effort is intended tohelp promote credible
elections in Nigeria which are conducted in accordance with international and regional
standards as well as the laws of our country by providing real time independent nonpartisan
information on the conduct of Election Day processes – setup of polling units,
accreditation of voters, voting and count.
The Quick Count methodology involves deploying trained and accredited citizen observers
in pairs to a representative random sample of polling units carefully selected by a trained
statistician. Because reports are received from a representative sample of polling units,
the findings can be extrapolated to all polling units (even thosewhich TMG did not deploy
observers) based on long established statistical principles. Thus, the findings from the
Quick Count hold for all 4,608 polling units in Anambra. The Quick Count methodology is
the gold standard in citizen observation.
TMG’s Quick Count also takes advantage of the latest developments in information and
communication technologies (ICTs). TMG has established a National Information Centre
(NIC) in Abuja with a sophisticated database and text messaging system. To ensure real
time information, TMG observers submit their reports via coded text messages using their
mobile phones. Reports are received directly into a database and processed.

Deployment of Observers

TMG deployed a total of 633 observers for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election. Of these
33 were mobile supervisors who moved around the state and 600 were stationary
assigned to a specific polling units. TMG stationary observers sent in more than 3,000 text
messages with over 20,000 individual pieces of information about the conduct of the
Election Day process.
Stationary observers were deployed in pairs to a representative random sample of 300
polling units across all three senatorial districts and all 21 local government areas

(LGAs).To ensure the representativeness of the sample it was stratified by senatorial
district and LGA. This means that the proportion of sampled polling units closely matches
the proportion of all polling units in each senatorial district and in each LGA. For example
Anambra North has 30.2% percent of all polling units (1,391 of 4,608) and 30.0% percent
of the sampled polling stations are in Anambra North (180 of 300). Appendix I and II
provide a detailed breakdown of the sampled polling stations by senatorial district and
LGA.

Verification of Official INEC Results

The Quick Count methodology allows for the independent verification of the official results
as announced by INEC. Since citizen observers are deployed to a representative random
sample across all three senatorial districts and 21 LGAs, the official results can be
collected from those sampled polling units and added together to estimate the official
INEC result. If the official result as announced by INEC falls within the margin of error of
the Quick Count estimate it means that the official result announced by INEC accurately
reflects the ballot cast at polling units.
Table 1: Comparison of Official INEC Results from November 18th, 2013 with TMG Quick Count
Estimates for Anambra Gubernatorial Election 2013
Political Party
Quick
Count
Estimate
Margin of
Error
Quick Count
Estimate
Range
Official
INEC
Result
Official INEC
Result within
Quick Count
Estimate Range

APC       23.8% 2.4% 21.4% – 26.2% 21.5% Yes
APGA     40.8% 2.8% 37.0% – 43.6% 40.7% Yes
LP     7.9% 2.5% 5.4% – 10.4% 8.7% Yes
PDP       21.4% 2.2% 19.2% – 23.6% 22.1% Yes
Other 19 Parties 2.9% 0.5% 2.4% – 3.4% 3.2% Yes
Rejected Ballots 3.1% 0.5% 2.6% – 3.6% 3.9% No

For each political party the official INEC result falls within the Quick Count estimate range.
For example the official INEC result for Labour Party is 8.7% which falls within the TMG
Quick Count estimated range for Labour Party meaning that the result is independently
verified. It is only if an official INEC results falls far outside the TMG Quick Count
estimated range that TMG cannot independently verify its accuracy.
The TMG Quick Count cannot definitively indicate if APC or PDP is currently in second
place. According to the TMG Quick Count estimates the lowest statistically possible
percent of the vote for APC is 21.4% while the highest statistically possible percent of the
vote for PDP is 23.6%. Because these values overlap statistically APC and PDP are
currently in a tie for second place.
INEC did report a slightly higher percentage of rejected ballots than TMG’s Quick Count
estimates. However the difference is less than 1% and would have no material impact on
the outcome of the election.

Thus, TMG can confidently confirm that the official results as announced by INEC reflect
the ballots cast at the 4,400 polling units that held election in Anambra State on November
16, 2013.
Again, only INEC declares official results as INEC is the constitutionally mandated body to
conduct all aspects of elections. TMG does not announce official results. It provides
independent verification of the official results as announced by INEC to enhance
transparency and accountability in the electoral process. The official results announced to
date by INEC are not for all 4,608 polling units in Anambra, but for only the 4,400 which
have voted to date.

Conclusion
The Anambra Gubernatorial Election is not yet over. While it is mathematically possible for
either the APC or PDP candidate to overtake the current leading APGA candidate, it
would require 100% turnout of the 113,113 voters in the 208 polling units with
Supplemental Voting and for either the APC or PDP candidate to win 70% of the vote. No
party won 70% of the vote in any LGA on Election Day. Further, if turnout is similar to that
of November 16th, 2013 and less than 30% voters go to the polls for Supplemental Voting
then it will not be possible for the outcome of the Anambra gubernatorial election to
change from the one announced by INEC on November 18th, 2013.
As a result, TMG will continue to observe the unfolding process as INEC makes public
arrangements for the Supplemental Voting elections. TMG calls on all the people of
Anambra State to remain calm as they await INEC’s announcement of the final results for
all 4,608 polling units. TMG will deploy to Anambra to observe the Supplemental Voting
and, as appropriate, issue additional statements and reports.
TMG encourages INEC to enhance transparency in the collation process by immediately
publishing the names and locations of the 208 polling units that will have Supplemental
Voting and after the complete official results are announced publishing not only the results
for the entire state and for the 21 LGAs, but also for all 4,608 polling units. This will greatly
increase the confidence of the public as well as political contestants that the announced
results accurately reflect the votes cast at polling units.
TMG insists that for the 2015 elections to be credible INEC must work in partnership with
political parties, civic organisations and government bodies to find practical solutions to
the chronic problems plaguing our elections. To this end, TMG stands ready to work with
INEC and other partners to help ensure the 2015 elections meet the expectations of the
Nigerian people.
Finally, TMG wish to restate its call and demand on INEC, security agency and the
Federal Government of Nigeria to make public the “outside interest” that sponsored
INEC Electoral Officer to sabotage the Anambra elections. Nigerians reserved the right to
know the interest undermining their progress. If armed robbers and petty thieves have
been paraded in the past by the police for their offences even before they are taken to
court, we do not see any cogent reason why the perpetrators of this dastard act will not be
named and shamed to serve as deterrent to others. We see “due process” in this matter
as a way of cover up just like cases in the past.

Impunity must stop in Nigeria and must not be condoned.
Thank you for your attention.

Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi

TMG Media Centre
08033188864 or 08094648891
media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org, or democracywatch@tmgng.org


Synopsis of TMG’s Pre-Election Press Conference on the November 16, 2013 Anambra Governorship Polls

November 15, 2013

November 15, 2013

Awka, Anambra State

PRESS RELEASE

On Eve of Anambra Gubernatorial Election,
TMG Calls for All to Play by the Rules

The Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) announced at a press briefing yesterday in Awka that it will employ the advanced Quick Count observation methodology and utilise the latest information and communication technology (ICT) to observe the Anambra gubernatorial election.

The Quick Count methodology will enable TMG to provide real time, representative and statistically valid information on the conduct of the Election Day processes – arrival of staff and materials, setup of the polling unit, accreditation of voters, voting itself and counting of ballot papers – both what goes well and any possible areas of concern

In total TMG will deploy 633 observers of which 600 will be stationed in pairs to representative random sample of polling stations. Throughout Election Day, TMG observers will send to an information centre located in Abuja a total of 3,600 text messages containing 21,600 individual pieces of information about the conduct of Election Day processes. They will also report the official INEC results as announced and posted at polling units.

TMG Chair Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi said “The Quick Count methodology will make election malpractices a high risk business during the coming election as TMG will have detailed information on the conduct of the election and be able to verify independently the accuracy of the official results as announced by INEC.”

As part of the briefing, TMG also provided information from on the pre-election period. TMG commended the role of the judiciary in speedily resolving electoral petitions, but was concerned about spate of litigation over party primaries. It was noted that INEC had provided political parties with electronic copies of the voters’ registry and TMG called upon INEC to publish the results of the election by polling unit. TMG is encouraged that debates were organised for gubernatorial candidates, but expressed concern that some candidates did not appear to be engaged in serious campaigning. TMG is concerned about the widespread allegations of the buying up of voter cards by politicians. TMG reminded the Security agencies that they should be impartial and neutral in the discharge of their duties during the election.

Finally, TMG called on all registered voters to go out and cast their ballot for the party of their choice on Election Day.

For More Information Contact:
[Comrade Eneruvie Enakoko],
+2348033188864, 08094648891
media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org, tmg.democracywatch@gmail.com


TMG QUICK COUNT TO ANAMBRARIANS-COME OUT TO VOTE TOMORROW: IT IS YOUR RIGHT AND CIVIC RESPONSIBILTY, DON’T LOSE IT, DON’T TRIVIALISE IT AND DON’T TRADE IT

November 15, 2013

TMG Quick Count calls on the good people of Anambra to ensure they come out by their numbers to vote on the Gubernatorial Elections of tomorrow Saturday November 16, 2013; we ask Anambrarians to exercise their right to vote tomorrow and to use it judiciously to make a change for better lives for their people.

TMG Quick Count reiterates that voting rights is a critical chance for the people to elect a people’s leader and influence policies that will transform the political landscape.

To this end, TMG Quick Count once again calls on the good people of Anambra not to yield to the temptation of selling their votes for a morsel of porridge. TMG Quick Count peacefully demand Anambrarians to protect and covet their votes; because it is their right to freely choose their next governor; it is their opportunity to be part of governance and essential policy conceptualisation in Anambra State; policies that will certainly impact them and their children, and it may end for good or bad depending solely on how they go about it, so TMG Quick Count encourages the good people of Anambra to vote wisely.

On the last note, TMG Quick Count again calls on Anambrarians to eschew violence and work for a free, fair, peaceful and credible poll.


TMG Quick Count – Anambra Gubernatorial Election – Saturday 16 November 2013 Fact Sheet

November 14, 2013

      Let the Votes Count

TMG Quick Count – Anambra Gubernatorial Election – Saturday 16 November 2013

Fact Sheet

1)    Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) will deploy a total of 633 non-partisan citizen observers – 33 mobile supervisors and 600 stationary observers assigned to specific polling units–employing the advanced Quick Count observation methodology and utilising the latest information and communication technology (ICT) to observe the Anambra gubernatorial election.

2)    As a result, TMG will be able to provide real time, representative and statistically valid information on the conduct of the Election Day processes – arrival of staff and materials, setup of the polling unit, accreditation of voters, voting itself and counting of ballot papers – both what goes well and any possible areas of concern.

3)    TMG will also be able to verify independently the accuracy of the official results that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) releases based on the official results announced and posted at polling units.

4)    TMG’s 600 stationary observers will be deployed in pairs to a representative random sample of 300 polling stations located in all 21 local government areas (LGAs) in proportion to the number of polling units in each LGA, according to well established and widely accepted statistical principles (see attached table).

5)    At sampled polling units, TMG observers will closely watch the process throughout Election Day and complete a checklist with 36 detailed questions about the process, from the time of arrival of INEC materials to the posting of the official results, INEC Form EC.8A (see TMG Observer Checklist).

6)    Throughout Election Day, TMG observers are expected to send to an information centre located in Abuja a total of 3,600 text messages containing 21,600 individual pieces of information about the conduct of Election Day processes (see point 2).

7)    All 633 TMG supervisors and observers will also text in critical incidents about serious problems that may occur on Election Day. TMG mobile supervisors will send in reports from anywhere in their assigned LGA (see TMG Critical Incident Form).

8)    TMG mobile supervisors will also be deployed to the 21 INEC LGA Collation Centres to record and transmit the official INEC LGA-level results.

9)    Reports from all TMG mobile supervisors and stationary observers will be sent via coded text message and processed by a computer database for real-time information on the electoral process.

10)  Elections ultimately belong to the people. TMG’s observation effort will provide independent, non-partisan representative information on the quality of the process and the accuracy of the official results so that people can determine if the conduct of the Anambra gubernatorial election meets their expectations.

TMG receives technical assistance from the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and financial support from the United State Agency for International Development (USAID) the Quick Count and this program builds on a longer term initiative by NDI made possible by USAID and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID).

Table 1: Distribution of INEC Polling Units and TMG Observers by LGA for Anambra Gubernatorial Election
LGA

Polling
Units

Percent of Polling Units

Sampled Polling Units

TMG Observers

Percent of Sampled Polling Units

AGUATA

300

6.5%

19

38

6.3%

ANAMBRA EAST

200

4.3%

13

26

4.3%

ANAMBRA WEST

158

3.4%

10

20

3.3%

ANAOCHA

310

6.7%

20

40

6.7%

AWKA NORTH

130

2.8%

9

18

3.0%

AWKA SOUTH

255

5.5%

17

34

5.7%

AYAMELUM

173

3.8%

11

22

3.7%

DUNUKOFIA

146

3.2%

10

20

3.3%

EKWUSIGO

175

3.8%

11

22

3.7%

IDEMILI NORTH

306

6.6%

20

40

6.7%

IDEMILI SOUTH

200

4.3%

13

26

4.3%

IHALA

278

6.0%

18

36

6.0%

NJIKOKA

201

4.4%

13

26

4.3%

NNEWI NORTH

198

4.3%

12

24

4.0%

NNEWI SOUTH

295

6.4%

20

40

6.7%

OGBARU

293

6.4%

19

38

6.3%

ONITSHA NORTH

201

4.4%

13

26

4.3%

ONITSHA SOUTH

200

4.3%

13

26

4.3%

ORUMBA NORTH

231

5.0%

16

32

5.3%

ORUMBA SOUTH

192

4.2%

12

24

4.0%

OYI

166

3.6%

11

22

3.7%

Total

4,608

100.0%

300

600

100.0%

Selection of sampled polling stations was done in a two-step process:

1)    The sample is allocated proportionally based on the percentage of polling units in each LGA. For example, Idemili South LGA has 4.3% (200 of 4,608) of the polling units in Anambra, therefore 13 of 300 or 4.3% of the polling units in the sample are in Idemili South LGA. What demonstrates that the sample is representative that the percentage of polling units closely matches the percentage of sampled polling units for every LGA.

2)    Once the number of sampled polling units for each LGA has been determined, then polling units are selected entirely at random for each LGA. For example, the 20 sampled polling units for Idemili South were selected entirely randomly from the 200 total polling units in the LGA.

At each polling unit, TMG will deploy two observers for a total of 600 observers.


TEXT OF A PRE-ELECTION MEDIA BRIEFING ON THE NOVEMBER 16TH, 2013 ANAMBRA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION ADDRESSED BY THE TRANSITION MONITORING GROUP (TMG) AT SEAGATE HOTELS & SUITES, AWKA ON 14TH NOVEMBER 2013

November 14, 2013

Anambra State Gubernatorial Election –
A Call for All to Play by the Rules

TEXT OF A PRE-ELECTION MEDIA BRIEFING ON THE NOVEMBER 16TH, 2013 ANAMBRA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION ADDRESSED BY THE TRANSITION MONITORING GROUP (TMG) AT SEAGATE HOTELS & SUITES, AWKA ON 14TH NOVEMBER 2013

Distinguished invited guests, our respected partners, Stakeholders, Ladies and Gentlemen of the media

We are delighted to welcome you to this pre-election media briefing on the November 16, 2013 Anambra State Governorship election.

The Transition Monitoring Group (TMG), a network of over 400 civic organisations, is the foremost independent civil society election observation organization in Nigeria. TMG will deploy a total of 633 trained accredited non-partisan observers for the Anambra Gubernatorial election fixed for November 16th, 2013. Six hundred (600) of these observers will deployed in pairs to a representative random sample of 300 polling stations according to the PVT/Quick Count methodology and in accordance with the “Declaration of Global Principles for Nonpartisan Election Observation and Monitoring by Citizen Organizations” launched at the United Nations in 2010.

Throughout Election Day, TMG’s observers will closely watch the process and record answers to 36 questions on the conduct of the election (setup of polling units, accreditation of voters, voting itself and counting of ballots). At six designated times during Election Day, TMG observers will send in their reports via text message using mobile phones to a National Information Centre (NIC) in Abuja. This will allow TMG to share with the country a truly representative and detailed picture of the conduct of the Anambra Gubernatorial Election – what has gone well as well as any shortcomings. Based on these reports, TMG will also be able to verify the accuracy of the official results as announced by the Independent National Election commission (INEC) to ensure that the results are not tampered with between the polling unit and the collation centers.

The Anambra Gubernatorial election is being conducted out of General Election season.  Anambra State was the first state in Nigeria where the governorship election was nullified by the judiciary.  Apart from nullifying the election, the Supreme Court in the subsequent case of Peter Obi v INEC held that the tenure of an elected governor begins to count from the date he actually took the oath of office and not the date he ought to have taken the oath of office.  In the circumstance, governorship elections in Anambra State are not conducted during the general elections.

Elections are about more than just Election Day and as such TMG has been observing the pre-election period. Today, we share our findings related to: the role of the judiciary in the elections; INEC’s preparations for the elections; the political environment in which the elections will occur; allegations of purchase of voters cards; and the expected role of the security agencies. TMG will also use a new observation methodology PVT or Quick Count and we will use today’s briefing to introduce Nigeria to our methodology.

THE JUDICIARY AND THE ELECTION

TMG commends the speed with which the Supreme Court determined the appeal filed before it on the disputed PDP primary election.  This has finally settled the question of who is the PDP candidate for the election.  In the circumstance, there is no more room for two or multiple candidates campaigning as PDP candidates for the election or participating as candidates in the election. INEC and law enforcement agencies should take necessary steps to ensure that the Supreme Court decision is complied with.

We observe that other suits are still pending in respect of the primaries of some other political parties. The spate of litigations on party primary elections is a matter of concern.  TMG urges political parties to practice internal democracy in order to stem the current judicialization of Nigerian politics. Party candidates should also adopt the spirit of sportsmanship where they have failed to win elections provided that the elections are conducted in a transparent and credible manner.

INEC PREPARATIONS FOR THE ELECTION

The result of the last governorship election conducted in Anambra State shows that only about 10 percent of the registered voters voted in the election.  The situation was blamed partly on voter apathy and partly on the inability of INEC to produce a reliable and credible voters’ register for the election.  The result was that a good number of voters were unable to locate the appropriate polling units where their names appeared in the voters’ register.  Though the Courts upheld the election as conducted in substantial compliance with the provisions of the Electoral Act, such election cannot be a model of democratic elections.  There cannot be participatory democracy in a situation where only a small percentage of the registered voters determine the outcome of an election.

TMG notes that INEC has released electronic copies of the voters’ registers to the political parties.  This is an improvement when compared with previous elections in the state when voters’ registers were hoarded.  Such a situation aided electoral malpractices in the past. Political parties have a duty to educate the electorates on where they can go to cast their votes on the Election Day.

INEC has also assured Nigerians that they have adopted a new system for the distribution of election materials which will ensure that the elections commence at the stipulated periods.  The test of the pudding, they say, is in the eating.  It will be a commendable achievement if this is accomplished.

TMG expects that INEC will publish the results of the election at the polling units and the various collation centres as prescribed by the Electoral Act. We urge INEC to make available to the political parties and candidates, on demand after the elections, copies of all the documents used in the election as required by law.

THE POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT

TMG has observed that the major political parties are vigorously campaigning for votes.  On the other hand, while there are 23 candidates registered to contest the election, the majority of the candidates appear not to be engaged in serious campaigning.  Whether such candidates are in the race to win the election or for some other reasons is a matter of conjecture. Multiplicity of candidates gives rise to logistic challenges during elections. TMG advises Nigerians not to put up their names as candidates for election for the sake of it. While all eligible Nigerians have the right to contest elections, the process should not be trivialized or used for improper purposes.

Generally the political environment has been peaceful. Apart from few incidents of campaign violence and destruction of bill-boards of some candidates in certain parts of the state, the atmosphere in the state has generally been peaceful.

It is interesting that debates have been organized for candidates. This is an attempt to make the election issue-based. It is equally interesting that contrary to what obtains in many states, there is no dominance of any political party in Anambra state.  There are at least more than four political parties that have fair chances of winning the election.

ALLEGATION OF PURCHASE OF VOTERS’ CARDS

There is widespread allegation that politicians are buying up voters’ cards in Anambra State. This amounts to attempting to enslave the people.  The voters’ card is a means of exercise of the people’s sovereignty.  When people sell their votes, they become slaves to those who bought it. They will surrender their power and strength as citizens.  We urge the people of Anambra State to resist any attempt to enslave them through the commoditization of their votes.  We urge Anambra electorates to use their vote to ensure good governance which will result in improvement of their life and ensure that there is future for their children.

EXPECTED ROLE OF SECURITY AGENCIES

Security agencies should be impartial and neutral in the discharge of their duties during the election. They have a duty to ensure that the election is conducted according to law, and that INEC officials, election observers, and other persons involved in the election as well as voters are protected from electoral violence.  In any case, on no account should security personnel take over or participate in the conduct of the elections. We call on the Police Service Commission to put in place appropriate mechanism for monitoring the roles of security agencies during the election.

TMG’S QUICK COUNT METHODOLOGY FOR OBSERVING THE ELECTION

TMG will employ a new and innovative approach to observe the Anambra election – PVT/Quick Count methodology.

WHAT IS PVT/QUICK COUNT?

Quick Count is an advanced citizen observation methodology in which specially selected, highly trained non-partisan observers are deployed to representative randomly sampled polling units to collect information on the conduct of the election as well as to record the official vote count as announced by INEC polling officials. These reports are rapidly transmitted to a TMG National Information Centre (NIC) in Abuja by specially coded text messages and directly entered into a computer database for analysis. Quick Count is a universally proven methodology that allows nonpartisan citizen observers to systematically assess the quality of Election Day processes and to verify the accuracy of the official results as announced by the election officials. The terms Parallel Vote Tabulation sometimes called a PVT and Quick Count are interchangeable.

THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT TMG-QUICK COUNT

TMG’s Quick Count will not announce official results. INEC is the only organization in Nigeria that announces official election results. Quick counts accurately and independently verify the official national election results based on a sample of polling units.

TMG’s quick count is a sophisticated methodology that is based on statistics for systematically evaluating the process of the election and providing an independent estimate of the Anambra State election results.

TMG’s quick counts use direct observations by highly trained observers and do not ask voters for their opinions, unlike exit polls.

Quick counts, properly done by citizen groups, remove uncertainty by independently verifying the official election results. Thus, quick counts can increase public confidence in a well-run election and reduce potentials for political violence.

Where quick counts expose fraud or identify shortcomings in the process, they provide an objective basis for making improvements and seeking peaceful resolution of complaints.

Quick counts examine the integrity of the voting and counting processes. Without an understanding of this data, the adding of results could be based on phony votes, such as stuffed ballot boxes or dishonest recording of votes.

The PVT/Quick Count methodology has been used repeatedly around the world to help improve electoral integrity and reduce post-election tensions and violence. It was first employed in the Philippines in 1986, and has been used successfully in Africa – in Kenya, Ghana, Madagascar, Malawi, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. We are confident that the methodology will help to build the confidence and trust of the Anambra people and by extension, the nation in the outcome of the governorship election.

The TMG Quick Count methodology will provide Anambra voters, political candidates and electoral authorities with an accurate real time picture of the conduct of the accreditation of voters, voting and counting.

ON SAMPLING, STATISTICS AND TMG’S DEPLOYMENT

  • The core of the quick count rests on deploying observers to a representative, random sample of polling units. This will allow TMG to use proven statistical principles to report on the conduct of all polling stations in Anambra based on sub-set.
  • For the Anambra Gubernatorial Election, TMG will deploy to a representative random sample of 300 polling stations selected by a trained statistician.
  • To ensure that the sample is truly representative of all of Anambra it has been stratified by local government area (LGA). This means that the number of sampled polling stations in each LGA is the same proportion as the total number of polling stations in the LGA. For example, according to INEC Idemili North LGA has 4.3% (200 of 4,608) of all the polling units in Anambra and therefore 4.3% (20 of 300) of the polling stations in TMG sample are in Idemili North.
  • 600 stationary observers will be deployed in pairs to 300 polling units to ensure that data is collected from all sampled polling units. TMG will also deploy 33 roving observers who will be available to observe any critical incidents that arise on Election Day.
  • Based on this methodology, TMG will also be able to provide an estimate of the process of the election based on information collected from quick count observers throughout Election Day.
  • The Quick count will also be able to produce statistically valid independent estimates of the official election results based on publicly posted information available at polling units.
  • From the official results collected from the representative random sample of 300 polling stations TMG using the PVT/Quick Count methodology will be able to estimate the results for all 4,608 polling stations within a margin of error.
  • If the INEC results fall within the margin of error of the TMG estimates then there was no manipulation during the collation of results and the official results as announced by INEC accurately reflect the ballots cast at polling units.

CONCLUSION

We call on the people of Anambra State to take their fate into their hands by exercising their franchise in the election. We call on all stakeholders to work towards a free, fair and credible election in Anambra State on November 16, 2013.  TMG’s new methodology of election observation will make election malpractices high risk business during the coming election.

Going forward, TMG has harmonized all its Social Media Platforms for TMG-Quick Count Election Observation work ahead of the Saturday, November 16, 2013 Anambra Gubernatorial Polls and the years ahead. Our ongoing election observation efforts and critical work will be released on these Social Media Platforms and our usual outreach Emails: media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.com and tmg.democracywatch@gmail.com. Kindly note that the Social Media Platforms are critically important, as we will be reaching out to you and the public often on them. Therefore, we encourage you to follow us on the platforms if you are not already doing so.

The Social Media Platforms in which you can follow us on Anambra election and other important governance issues are:

Facebook:          https://www.facebook.com/CentreforCivicEducationakaTMG

Twitter: https://twitter.com/tmgnig

Flickr:    http://www.flickr.com/tmg_nigeria

Youtube:            http://www.youtube.com/transitionmonitoring

Blog:      http://www.tmgnigeria.wordpress.com

Our main Website for general information on TMG and PDF Press Statements and others remains: http://www.tmgng.org

Finally, we thank the USAID and NDI for their financial and technical support that enabled us to engage in this lofty and high-tech venture of Quick Count observation. TMG is especially grateful to the government and people of the United States of America for their consistent and unflinching interest and support to Nigeria’s democratization.

Thank you all for your attention.

Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi                                                        

Chairman                      

For Media Enquiries, kindly contact Comrade Eneruvie Enakoko on:

+2348033188864, 08094648891;

media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org and tmg.democracywatch@gmail.com


PRESS RELEASE-POLICE BRUTALITY AND BREAKUP OF FOI COLLOQUIUM-A PRECIPITIOUS TILT TO THE DARK DAYS OF MILITARY DICTATORSHIP

November 13, 2013

                                              CENTRE FOR CIVIC EDUCATION

   (a.k.a Transition Monitoring Group)

No 5, Abdurrahman Mora Street, Kado Estate, Abuja – Nigeria
P. O. Box 11312 Garki-Abuja. Tel: 234-07025403819, 08140439415

Email: secretariat@tmgng.org. tmgabuja@yahoo.com

Blog:www.tmgnigeria.wordpress.com, Twitter: @TMGNig, Facebook: TMG Nigeria

Website: www.tmgng.org

 

November 13, 2013

Awka, Anambra State, Nigeria

PRESS RELEASE

POLICE BRUTALITY AND BREAKUP OF FOI COLLOQUIUM-A PRECIPITIOUS TILT TO THE DARK DAYS OF MILITARY DICTATORSHIP

Yesterday, Tuesday, November 13, 2013; the Police in Abuja viciously disrupted and singlehandedly cancelled a two day Freedom of Information (FOI) colloquium organised by the Anti-Corruption Network at the NICON Luxury Hotel in Abuja. This is about the fourth time in one week that the Nigerian Police on orders of the Inspector General of Police, Muhammed Abubakar will unconstitutionally interfere with a peaceful assembly of the people; this is illegal and an infringement of the fundamental rights of the Nigerian people to peacefully assemble, organise or protest. Instructively, the Inspector General of Police by virtue of the powers of the Constitution is responsible and accountable to the President and Commander in Chief, so there is really no possible way that the Jonathan Administration can extricate itself or deny knowledge of these sad commentaries in the political landscape. Furthermore, it is a lamentable paradox that the Freedom of Information (FOI) Act 2011 was passed into law by this Administration; and that is something that FOI Colloquium aborted by the Police seeks to address and strengthen.

Evocative of the dark era of Military Dictatorships, where police brutality and the cycle of violence was the order of the day, the Jonathan Administration is becoming increasingly restive and intolerant of dissenting views; from the crippling of protest marches and civil disobedience to the muzzling of labour unions, the Administration is patently nervy and out of control.

These developments in the political climate in indeed worrisome, and we call on the Administration to put a stop to it now.

TMG calls on the Nigerian people to speak up and say no to these tyrannical tendencies.

Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi

Chairman                                                     

Chief Eddy Ezurike

Publicity Secretary

For Media Enquiries, kindly contact Comrade Eneruvie Enakoko on:

+2348033188864, 08094648891;

 media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org and tmg.democracywatch@gmail.com

 

CENTRE FOR CIVIC EDUCATION

   (a.k.a Transition Monitoring Group)

No 5, Abdurrahman Mora Street, Kado Estate, Abuja – Nigeria
P. O. Box 11312 Garki-Abuja. Tel: 234-07025403819, 08140439415

Email: secretariat@tmgng.org. tmgabuja@yahoo.com

Blog: www.tmgnigeria.wordpress.com,

Twitter: @TMGNig or http://www.twitter.com/TMGNig

 Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/CentreforCivicEducationakaTMG

Flickr: http://www.flickr.com/tmg_nigeria

Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/transitionmonitoring

Website: www.tmgng.org