Verification of INEC Official Results for Anambra

Verification of INEC Official Results for
Anambra (as Announced Nov 18th, 2013)
Delivered at Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) National Secretariat on
November 19th, 2013

Distinguished guests, our respected partners, stakeholders, ladies and
gentlemen of the media, on behalf of the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG)
Quick Count Working Group I am delighted to welcome you to this press
conference on our preliminary observation findings for the Anambra
Gubernatorial Election held on Saturday November 16th, 2013.
The Independent National Election Commission (INEC) has now publicly
announced official results for 4,400 of 4,608 of polling stations for the
Anambra Gubernatorial Election. While a date has not yet been publicised,
INEC has announced that supplemental voting for 208 polling units of which
160 are in Idemili North local government area (LGA).
Based on the Quick Count methodology, TMG can confidently verify that
the collation process was done properly and the official results as
announced by INEC on November 18th, 2013 accurately reflect the votes
cast on Election Day at those polling stations which held elections.
The official INEC results for each candidate closely match TMG’s independent
estimates – which are based on polling unit results collected from a
representative random sample of polling units across all three senatorial
districts and all 21 LGAs.
Only INEC declares official results as INEC is the constitutionally mandated
body to conduct all aspects of elections. TMG does not announce official
results. It provides independent verification of the official results as announced
by INEC to enhance transparency and accountability in the electoral process.
As TMG has reported before, the process was not without serious
shortcomings, including:
1. Late arrival of election materials to polling units;
2. No elections in five wards of Idemili North LGA – this issue is particularly
worrisome as Idemili North is a party stronghold;
3. Individuals with voter’s cards were refused accreditation;

4. Simultaneous accreditation and voting (i.e. individuals being allowed to accredit
and vote after accreditation had closed) created the possibility of illegal voting;
and
5. A significant number of voters who left polling units after accreditation did not
return to vote (thereby disenfranchising themselves).
These shortcomings undermine public confidence in the electoral process – especially
since many of these issues are not new and have plagued past elections. For the 2015
elections to be credible, INEC must work in partnership with political parties, civic
organizations, and government bodies to find practical solutions to these problems.

Methodology

TMG is a member of the Global Network of Domestic Election Monitors (GNDEM) as well
as the West African Election Observer Network (WAEON) and conducts all of its citizen
observation efforts in accordance with the “Declaration of Global Principles for
Nonpartisan Election Observation and Monitoring by Citizen Organisations”.
TMG’s innovative Quick Count observation effort is intended tohelp promote credible
elections in Nigeria which are conducted in accordance with international and regional
standards as well as the laws of our country by providing real time independent nonpartisan
information on the conduct of Election Day processes – setup of polling units,
accreditation of voters, voting and count.
The Quick Count methodology involves deploying trained and accredited citizen observers
in pairs to a representative random sample of polling units carefully selected by a trained
statistician. Because reports are received from a representative sample of polling units,
the findings can be extrapolated to all polling units (even thosewhich TMG did not deploy
observers) based on long established statistical principles. Thus, the findings from the
Quick Count hold for all 4,608 polling units in Anambra. The Quick Count methodology is
the gold standard in citizen observation.
TMG’s Quick Count also takes advantage of the latest developments in information and
communication technologies (ICTs). TMG has established a National Information Centre
(NIC) in Abuja with a sophisticated database and text messaging system. To ensure real
time information, TMG observers submit their reports via coded text messages using their
mobile phones. Reports are received directly into a database and processed.

Deployment of Observers

TMG deployed a total of 633 observers for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election. Of these
33 were mobile supervisors who moved around the state and 600 were stationary
assigned to a specific polling units. TMG stationary observers sent in more than 3,000 text
messages with over 20,000 individual pieces of information about the conduct of the
Election Day process.
Stationary observers were deployed in pairs to a representative random sample of 300
polling units across all three senatorial districts and all 21 local government areas

(LGAs).To ensure the representativeness of the sample it was stratified by senatorial
district and LGA. This means that the proportion of sampled polling units closely matches
the proportion of all polling units in each senatorial district and in each LGA. For example
Anambra North has 30.2% percent of all polling units (1,391 of 4,608) and 30.0% percent
of the sampled polling stations are in Anambra North (180 of 300). Appendix I and II
provide a detailed breakdown of the sampled polling stations by senatorial district and
LGA.

Verification of Official INEC Results

The Quick Count methodology allows for the independent verification of the official results
as announced by INEC. Since citizen observers are deployed to a representative random
sample across all three senatorial districts and 21 LGAs, the official results can be
collected from those sampled polling units and added together to estimate the official
INEC result. If the official result as announced by INEC falls within the margin of error of
the Quick Count estimate it means that the official result announced by INEC accurately
reflects the ballot cast at polling units.
Table 1: Comparison of Official INEC Results from November 18th, 2013 with TMG Quick Count
Estimates for Anambra Gubernatorial Election 2013
Political Party
Quick
Count
Estimate
Margin of
Error
Quick Count
Estimate
Range
Official
INEC
Result
Official INEC
Result within
Quick Count
Estimate Range

APC       23.8% 2.4% 21.4% – 26.2% 21.5% Yes
APGA     40.8% 2.8% 37.0% – 43.6% 40.7% Yes
LP     7.9% 2.5% 5.4% – 10.4% 8.7% Yes
PDP       21.4% 2.2% 19.2% – 23.6% 22.1% Yes
Other 19 Parties 2.9% 0.5% 2.4% – 3.4% 3.2% Yes
Rejected Ballots 3.1% 0.5% 2.6% – 3.6% 3.9% No

For each political party the official INEC result falls within the Quick Count estimate range.
For example the official INEC result for Labour Party is 8.7% which falls within the TMG
Quick Count estimated range for Labour Party meaning that the result is independently
verified. It is only if an official INEC results falls far outside the TMG Quick Count
estimated range that TMG cannot independently verify its accuracy.
The TMG Quick Count cannot definitively indicate if APC or PDP is currently in second
place. According to the TMG Quick Count estimates the lowest statistically possible
percent of the vote for APC is 21.4% while the highest statistically possible percent of the
vote for PDP is 23.6%. Because these values overlap statistically APC and PDP are
currently in a tie for second place.
INEC did report a slightly higher percentage of rejected ballots than TMG’s Quick Count
estimates. However the difference is less than 1% and would have no material impact on
the outcome of the election.

Thus, TMG can confidently confirm that the official results as announced by INEC reflect
the ballots cast at the 4,400 polling units that held election in Anambra State on November
16, 2013.
Again, only INEC declares official results as INEC is the constitutionally mandated body to
conduct all aspects of elections. TMG does not announce official results. It provides
independent verification of the official results as announced by INEC to enhance
transparency and accountability in the electoral process. The official results announced to
date by INEC are not for all 4,608 polling units in Anambra, but for only the 4,400 which
have voted to date.

Conclusion
The Anambra Gubernatorial Election is not yet over. While it is mathematically possible for
either the APC or PDP candidate to overtake the current leading APGA candidate, it
would require 100% turnout of the 113,113 voters in the 208 polling units with
Supplemental Voting and for either the APC or PDP candidate to win 70% of the vote. No
party won 70% of the vote in any LGA on Election Day. Further, if turnout is similar to that
of November 16th, 2013 and less than 30% voters go to the polls for Supplemental Voting
then it will not be possible for the outcome of the Anambra gubernatorial election to
change from the one announced by INEC on November 18th, 2013.
As a result, TMG will continue to observe the unfolding process as INEC makes public
arrangements for the Supplemental Voting elections. TMG calls on all the people of
Anambra State to remain calm as they await INEC’s announcement of the final results for
all 4,608 polling units. TMG will deploy to Anambra to observe the Supplemental Voting
and, as appropriate, issue additional statements and reports.
TMG encourages INEC to enhance transparency in the collation process by immediately
publishing the names and locations of the 208 polling units that will have Supplemental
Voting and after the complete official results are announced publishing not only the results
for the entire state and for the 21 LGAs, but also for all 4,608 polling units. This will greatly
increase the confidence of the public as well as political contestants that the announced
results accurately reflect the votes cast at polling units.
TMG insists that for the 2015 elections to be credible INEC must work in partnership with
political parties, civic organisations and government bodies to find practical solutions to
the chronic problems plaguing our elections. To this end, TMG stands ready to work with
INEC and other partners to help ensure the 2015 elections meet the expectations of the
Nigerian people.
Finally, TMG wish to restate its call and demand on INEC, security agency and the
Federal Government of Nigeria to make public the “outside interest” that sponsored
INEC Electoral Officer to sabotage the Anambra elections. Nigerians reserved the right to
know the interest undermining their progress. If armed robbers and petty thieves have
been paraded in the past by the police for their offences even before they are taken to
court, we do not see any cogent reason why the perpetrators of this dastard act will not be
named and shamed to serve as deterrent to others. We see “due process” in this matter
as a way of cover up just like cases in the past.

Impunity must stop in Nigeria and must not be condoned.
Thank you for your attention.

Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi

TMG Media Centre
08033188864 or 08094648891
media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org, or democracywatch@tmgng.org

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