TMG Confirms Accuracy of Partial INEC
Results for Anambra Gubernatorial Election
November 19th, 2013
“Based on the Quick Count methodology, the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG)
can confidently verify that the collation process was done properly and the official
results as announced by INEC on November 18th, 2013 accurately reflect the votes
cast on Election Day at those polling stations which held elections,” said TMG
Chair Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi
The Quick Count methodology allows for the independent verification of the official results
as announced by INEC. Since citizen observers are deployed to a representative random
sample across all three senatorial districts and 21 LGAs, the official results can be
collected from those sampled polling units and added together to estimate the official
INEC result. If the official result as announced by INEC falls within the margin of error of
the Quick Count estimate it means that the official result announced by INEC accurately
reflects the ballot cast at polling units.
Table 1: Comparison of Official INEC Results from November 18th, 2013 with TMG Quick Count
Estimates for Anambra Gubernatorial Election 2013
APC 23.8% 2.4% 21.4% – 26.2% 21.5% Yes
APGA 40.8% 2.8% 37.0% – 43.6% 40.7% Yes
LP 7.9% 2.5% 5.4% – 10.4% 8.7% Yes
PDP 21.4% 2.2% 19.2% – 23.6% 22.1% Yes
Other 19 Parties 2.9% 0.5% 2.4% – 3.4% 3.2% Yes
Rejected Ballots 3.1% 0.5% 2.6% – 3.6% 3.9% No
For each political party the official INEC result falls within the Quick Count estimate range.
For example the official INEC result for Labour Party is 8.7% which falls within the TMG
Quick Count estimated range for Labour Party meaning that the result is independently
verified. It is only if an official INEC results falls far outside the TMG Quick Count
estimated range that TMG cannot independently verify its accuracy.
The TMG Quick Count cannot definitively indicate if APC or PDP is currently in second
place. According to the TMG Quick Count estimates the lowest statistically possible
percent of the vote for APC is 21.4% while the highest statistically possible percent of the
vote for PDP is 23.6%. Because these values overlap statistically APC and PDP are
currently in a tie for second place.
Only INEC declares official results as INEC is the constitutionally mandated body to
conduct all aspects of elections. TMG does not announce official results. It provides
independent verification of the official results as announced by INEC to enhance
transparency and accountability in the electoral process.
As TMG has reported before, the process was not without serious shortcomings, including
most concerning no elections in five wards of Idemili North which is a party stronghold.
These shortcomings undermine public confidence in the electoral process – especially
since many of these issues are not new and have plagued past elections.
TMG Chair Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi said “For the 2015 elections to be credible,
INEC must work in partnership with political parties, civic organizations, and government
bodies to find practical solutions to these problems.”
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