Text of Post-Election Press Briefing on theAnambra State Gubernatorial Election presented by the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) at the TMG National Secretariat, Kado Estate, Abuja on December 2, 2013

Text of Post-Election Press Briefing on theAnambra State Gubernatorial Election presented by the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) at the TMG National Secretariat, Kado Estate, Abuja on December 2, 2013

Delivered at Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) National Secretariat on December 2nd, 2013

Distinguished guests, respected partners and stakeholders, ladies and gentlemen of the media; on behalf of the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) Quick Count Working Group I am delighted to welcome you to this Post-Election Press Briefing on our observation findings on the Anambra State Gubernatorial Election held on Saturday, November 16, 2013; and the subsequent re-run election on the 17^th in Obosi ward of Idemili North and the Supplementary Election held on Saturday, November 30, 2013. TMG had previously made known to the public its preliminary observations and verified that the collation process for the initial Election held on November 16, 2013 was done properly, and the partial official results as announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on November 18, 2013 accurately reflected the votes cast on Election Day at those polling stations which held Election.

Before going further, permit me here to give a quick run-down of TMG’s work in respect of the Anambra State Gubernatorial Election:

1. TMG deployed a total of 633 non-partisan citizen observers-33 mobile supervisors and 600 stationary observers assigned to specific polling units-employing the advanced Quick Count Observation Methodology and utilising the latest information and communication technology (ICT) to observe the Anambra State Gubernatorial Election.
2. As a result, TMG was able to provide real time, representative and statistically valid information on the conduct of the Election Day Processes-arrival of staff and materials, setup of the polling units, accreditation of voters, voting itself and counting of ballot papers-both what goes well and any possible areas of concern.
3. TMG was also able to verify independently the accuracy of the Partial official results the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released based on the official results announced and posted at polling units.
4. TMG’s 600 stationary observers were deployed in pairs to a representative random sample of 300 polling stations located in all 21 local government areas (LGAs) in proportion to the number of polling units in each LGA, according to well established and widely accepted statistical principles.
5. At random sampled polling units, TMG observers closely watched the process throughout Election Day and completed a checklist of 36 detailed questions about the process, from the time of arrival of INEC materials to the posting of the official results-INEC Form EC.8A.
6. Throughout Election Day, TMG observers as expected sent to an Information Centre located in Abuja a total of 3600 text messages containing 21,600 individual pieces of information about the conduct of the Election Day Processes.
7. All 633 TMG’s supervisors and observers also sent in critical incidents that occurred on Election Day. TMG mobile supervisors equally sent in reports from their assigned LGAs.
8. TMG mobile supervisors deployed to the 21 INEC LGAs collation centres recorded and transmitted the official INEC LGAs-level results.
9. Reports from all TMG’s mobile supervisors and stationary observers sent via coded text messages were processed by a computer database for real-time information on the Electoral Process.

1. TMG’s observation efforts provided independent non-partisan representative information on the quality of the process and the accuracy of the official results so that people could determine if the conduct of the Anambra State Gubernatorial Election met their expectations or not, because Elections ultimately belong to the people.
2. The sample was allocated proportionally based on the percentage of polling units in each LGA. For example, Idemili South LGA has 4.3% (200 of 4,608) of the polling units in Anambra, therefore 13 of 300 or 4.3% of the polling units in the sample were in Idemili South LGA. What demonstrates that the sample is representative was that the percentage of polling units closely matches the percentage of sampled polling units for every LGA.
3. Once the number of sampled polling units for each LGA has been determined, then polling units were selected entirely at random for each LGA. For example, the 20 sampled polling units for Idemili South were selected entirely randomly from the 200 total polling units in the LGA.
4. TMG received technical assistance from the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and financial support from the United State Agency for International Development (USAID). The Quick Count and this program build on a longer term initiative by NDI made possible by USAID and the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID).

The Supplementary Election

For the supplementary election, TMG deployed 22 stationary observers to the polling units affected in its initial sampled polling units and 12 roving observers. These were to cover the 212 polling units across 16 LGAs that elections had been declared inconclusive; hence the supplementary election. 

On the Supplementary Election of Saturday, November 30, 2013; TMG observers reported that:

1. polling units visited were opened and INEC officials arrived on time
2. There was presence of security personnel and party agents at polling units.
3. There was hitch free accreditation process which also commenced on time polling units observed.
4. We however observed a very low voter turnout for the supplementary Election.

 TMG Post-Election Findings

Based on reports from TMG’s 633 citizen observers, deployed across all 3 senatorial districts and all 21 LGAs, TMG found out that, while many elements of the Election Day process were adequate, there were serious shortcomings, including:

1. Late arrival of election materials at polling units – as of 7:30am, observers reported that only 39% of polling units across the state had their election materials and by 9am only 43% of polling units were able to open; When materials finally arrived, at 58% of polling units observers reported two polling officials; at 38% of polling units three or more polling officials were present; while at just 4% of polling units there was only one polling official present.
2. The widespread late delivery of election materials delayed the start of accreditation of voters across the state. TMG observers reported that as at 12:00 noon of November 16, about 60% of polling units had not received accreditation materials.
3. Simultaneous accreditation and voting (i.e. individuals being allowed to accredit and vote after accreditation had closed) created the possibility of illegal voting – at 28% of polling units 50 or more people were accredited during voting.
4. Individuals with voter’s cards were refused accreditation – at 19% of polling units, between 6 and 25 people with voter’s cards were denied accreditation, for whatever reason and could not vote; Simultaneous accreditation and voting (i.e. individuals being allowed to accredit and vote after accreditation had closed) created the possibility of illegal voting – at 28% of polling units, 50 or more people were accredited during voting; and
5. A significant number of voters who left polling units after accreditation did not return to vote – at 31% of polling units, the number of accredited voters exceeded the number of actual voters by more than 10%.
6. At 52% of polling units, observers reported four or more political party agents; at

39% of polling units, there were one to three political party agents present, while 9% of polling units had no agents from any party present.

Verification of the accuracy of official results for Anambra Gubernatorial Election as announced by INEC

TMG recognizes and frowns at the irregularities that had trailed the November 16 election day as reported in our previous statements. However Based on the Quick Count methodology, the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) can confidently verify that the collation process was done properly and the official results as announced by INEC on November 30th, 2013 accurately reflect the votes cast on Election Day (16th November 2013) and on the supplementary election (held on 30th November, 2013)                                                                    

Recommendations

1. INEC must continue to announce and publish results at polling unit to make later manipulation very difficult.
2. The observed widespread voter apathy in Anambra is worrisome and portends danger to the growth of our democracy. TMG lays the blame on the people of Anambra state for exhibiting such civic negligence which allowed less than 26% of the registered voters to determine the fate and leadership of a state of over 3 million people. TMG therefore calls for an immediate turn around in attitude towards future elections and other civic responsibilities. 
3.  INEC MUST hold accountable and bring to book those responsible for the failures recorded during the conduct of elections in some polling units, particularly in Idemili North .
4. TMG calls on INEC to live up its responsibility as it goes into preparation for Ekiti and Osun states elections, and of course 2015 general elections. We must realize that Nigerian people are tired of excuses bothering on logistical short comings affecting the conduct of elections.

Conclusion

For the 2015 elections to be credible, INEC must work in partnership with political parties, civic organizations, and government bodies to find practical solutions to these problems.”

Thank you for your attention.

Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi

Chairman

 

TMG Media Centre

08094648891

media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org, or democracywatch@tmgng.org

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ANAMBRA STATE PRE-SUPPLEMENTARY ELECTION: THE FACTS AS THEY ARE AND A CALL FOR JUSTICE, TRANSPARENCY AND PEACE

 

 

CENTRE FOR CIVIC EDUCATION

    (a.k.a Transition Monitoring Group)

No 5, Abdurrahman Mora Street, Kado Estate, Abuja – Nigeria
P. O. Box 11312 Garki-Abuja. Tel: 234-07025403819, 08140439415

Email: secretariat@tmgng.org. tmgabuja@yahoo.com

Blog:www.tmgnigeria.wordpress.com, Twitter: @TMGNig, Facebook: TMG Nigeria

Website: www.tmgng.org

NOVEMBER 29, 2013

ABUJA, NIGERIA

PRESS RELEASE

ANAMBRA STATE PRE-SUPPLEMENTARY ELECTION: THE FACTS AS THEY ARE AND A CALL FOR JUSTICE, TRANSPARENCY AND PEACE

The public has continued to evaluate the November 16, 2013 Anambra State Gubernatorial Election, which was declared inconclusive by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), following serious lapses and acknowledged irregularities by INEC in some 212 Polling units, cutting across 16 LGAs of the State.  As a result, a Supplementary Election in the affected areas has now been scheduled for Saturday, November 30, 2013 by INEC.

While TMG noted the obvious issues and documented irregularities observed during the Election, and criticisms and name callings that have followed it, TMG with its Quick Count Methodology went beyond blanket criticisms or perceived failings, inadequacies or excesses of INEC to the real issues. Hence, TMG identified where INEC erred, where its Officials seemed to have compromised, and where they appeared to have met expectations

Although, the Election successfully took place across 4,333 Polling Units out of the State’s 4,608 Polling Units; Voters in 65 Polling Units of Obosi Ward 7 were unable to vote due to late arrival of Materials and other associated glitches. As a result, they voted the next day, Sunday, November 17, 2013. However, the Election in the remaining 21 Polling Units spread across 16 LGAs with a potential 113,113 Voters was cancelled because of alleged irregularities and complicity of certain INEC Official(s).

It is against this backdrop that INEC declared the Election inconclusive and subsequently announced a Supplementary Election for Saturday, November 30, 2013. Most of the affected areas in which the Supplementary Election will take place are in 160 Polling Units of Idemili North LGA with some 90,000 Voters, namely: Abatete, 33 Polling Units; Ideani, 8 Polling Units; Nkpor 1, 16 Polling Units; Nkpor 2, 40 Polling Units; Ogidi 1, 28 Polling Units; Ogidi 2, 23 Polling Units; Uke, 3 Polling Units; and Umuoji, 9 Polling Units. The rest Polling Units with some reported 23,133 Voters are spread across 15 LGAs.

As TMG prepares to observe the Supplementary Election in Anambra State, we strongly feel the pains, disappointments and betrayals suffered by the good people of Anambra State. TMG is strongly persuaded that it is not so much about the Independent National Electoral Commission or its leadership in Abuja; it is about the pervading systemic failure across the nation. While aggrieved Political Parties and their Candidates may have genuine reasons to boycott the Supplementary Elections, TMG would however ask them not to succumb by quitting but to rather give it their all and fight to the end; all aggrieved Political Parties and Candidates must not forget in a hurry how the incumbent Governor of Anambra State was deprived of his Electoral Victory and Mandate for several years, but he remained resolute and fought his case through the Courts to secure his legitimate Mandate. By the same token, we urge the aggrieved Political Parties and Candidates to toe the same line if at the end of the day; justice seems not to have been done in this historical Election.

In addition, it is critically important to review again the preparations made by INEC on the Anambra Elections. We are of the view that INEC was not adequately prepared; an Election that disenfranchises eligible Voters cannot be said to have met the minimum acceptable standard globally.

TMG equally believes that INEC is not the only culpable body in all of these; all Stakeholders must share in the blame. As we have earlier stated, TMG will again use its tested Quick Count Methodology to observe and monitor the Supplementary Election; and we are confident that we will be able to verify the authenticity of the outcome or results of the Supplementary Election that will be declared by INEC.

Going forward, TMG calls on the good people of Anambra State in particular and Nigerians in general to keep hope alive, and not to despair. We encourage Anambrarians not to lose faith in the Electoral Process and to come out massively to vote and complete this exercise.

We call on the government to consider revisiting without delay the Justice Uwais led Electoral Reform Committee Report with a view to implementing all the salient propositions for until that is fully implemented, our Electoral Process and indeed our democracy will continue to experience these issues.

INEC must also make sure that all indicted or arrested Electoral Offenders are brought to justice to deter others.

In particular, INEC must ensure that the mistakes inherent in the November 16, 2013 Gubernatorial Election in Anambra State are not repeated.  INEC must see to it that the following are strictly adhered to:

1. Searchlight must be beamed on the five critical Wards of Idemili North LGA in which TMG’s sampled Polling Units observed that there were no Elections, namely: Abatete, Nkpor 1, Nkpor II, Obosi and Ogidi 1
2.  Questionable Characters or Officials are not part of the Supplementary Election
3.  Materials are delivered on time to the Polling Units
4.  Voters are accredited on time, and allowed to vote on time with due regards to the allotted start-time of voting
5.  Voters with genuine Voters Card are not denied accreditation
6. Illegal voting due to simultaneous accreditation and voting are not allowed
7. No willful disenfranchisement of duly registered Voters
8. And in future Elections, particularly in the coming Ekiti and Osun States Gubernatorial Elections in 2014, and the General Elections in 2015; actual copies of the Electronic Voters Register are made available to all Political Parties and Civic Organisations, particularly Observer Groups to minimise fraud, insinuations and conspiracy theories.

TMG is also aware that there have been reported calls for violence, and threats to destabilise Anambra State and plunge it into an orgy of mayhem. To this end, we ask the Police and all Security Agencies to be on alert, be alive to their responsibilities, maintain the peace and forestall any breakdown of law and order. The Police and other Security Agencies must also understand that their responsibility and ultimate loyalty is to the people and not to any self-serving politician or Government functionary; therefore they must carry out their responsibilities in most civil, orderly and responsibly manner; and must do away with the inglorious era of colluding with politicians and other Government functionaries against the people. We equally call on all perpetrators and purveyors of violence to desist from such actions and work towards peace and stability in Anambra State so that there can be free, fair and credible Election that will result in a smooth transition in the State; The Anambra State people and indeed the entire nation must understand nothing can be achieved in an atmosphere of violence and lawlessness; we must all therefore work together for peace in our land.

Thank you, God bless Anambra State and may God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi                                                                   Chief Eddy Ezurike

Chairman                                                                                                        Publicity Secretary

For Media Enquiries, kindly contact Comrade Eneruvie Enakoko on:

+2348033188864, 08094648891;

 media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org and tmg.democracywatch@gmail.com

PRESS RELEASE: NOMINATION OF FORMER BAUCHI STATE GOVERNOR, MU’AZU ADAMU AS PENCOM CHAIRMAN-AN ENDORSEMENT OF CORRUPTION BY PRESIDENT JONATHAN

 

CENTRE FOR CIVIC EDUCATION

   (a.k.a Transition Monitoring Group)

No 5, Abdurrahman Mora Street, Kado Estate, Abuja – Nigeria
P. O. Box 11312 Garki-Abuja. Tel: 234-07025403819, 08140439415

Email: secretariat@tmgng.org. tmgabuja@yahoo.com

Blog:www.tmgnigeria.wordpress.com, Twitter: @TMGNig, Facebook: TMG Nigeria

Website: www.tmgng.org

 

November 25, 2013

Abuja, Nigeria

PRESS RELEASE

NOMINATION OF FORMER BAUCHI STATE GOVERNOR, MU’AZU ADAMU AS PENCOM CHAIRMAN-AN ENDORSEMENT OF CORRUPTION BY PRESIDENT JONATHAN

Few days ago, President Goodluck Jonathan nominated former Bauchi State Governor, Mu’azu Adamu as Chairman of the Nigerian Pension Commission (PENCOM), and subsequently forwarded his name to the Senate for confirmation.

The Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) is astonished and peeved by this move of the President, especially in the light of the fact that the former Governor is yet to be cleared by the Economics and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) of the corruption charges he is facing for allegedly defrauding the coffers of Bauchi State to the tune of N19.8bill when he was Governor of the State. This and other similar acts of Mr. President, particularly his penchant for surrounding himself with famed corrupt individuals makes his government’s so-called anti-corruption efforts a laughing stock, for it is patently obvious from his antecedents that President Jonathan endorses corruption.

TMG recalls that in the heat of the corruption charges against the same Mu’azu Adamu, President Jonathan appointed him in 2011 as Chairman of the Board of Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA). It was with the President’s nod  that Business Mogul, Mike Adenuga and his wife, Titi Adenuga in late 2010 walked free from the EFCC charges they were facing for reportedly collecting bribes from Siemens officials; and it was this same attitude of Presidential Romance with alleged corrupt individuals that enabled controversial Lawyer, Dele Oye to walk scot free from EFCC charges of allegedly acting as front for the defunct Oceanic Bank CEO, Cecilia Ibru; and aiding her to loot tens of billions of Naira in Bank assets. The Nigerian people of course will not forget in a hurry how this same President granted Presidential Pardon to a notorious convicted corrupt former Governor and his kinsman, DSP Alamieyeseigha and other criminals, including a paedophile. Those who recently looted the Police Pensions Board, including its former Director are yet to be brought to book. The list is endless; yet Jonathan’s regime talks about fight against corruption. The attitude of Mr. President in recycling corrupt individuals in public places is worrisome and does not inspire confidence at all.  In fact, on issue after issue, he has shown that he will never combat corruption but will rather aid, abet and shield corrupt officials.

TMG therefore calls on the President to withdraw immediately the nomination of Adamu Mu’azu as Chairman of PENCOM and take creative steps to rebuild goodwill and imbue confidence in the anti-corruption war. This is the only pathway to redemption, prosperity and development in this country.

 

Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi                                                   Chief Eddy Ezurike

Chairman                                                                                        Publicity Secretary

For Media Enquiries, kindly contact Comrade Eneruvie Enakoko on:

+2348033188864, 08094648891;

 media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org and tmg.democracywatch@gmail.com

 

PRESS RELEASE-FESTUS IYAYI’S DEATH-A SAD REFLECTION OF THE NATION’S RECKLESS POLITICS

 

CENTRE FOR CIVIC EDUCATION

   (a.k.a Transition Monitoring Group)

No 5, Abdurrahman Mora Street, Kado Estate, Abuja – Nigeria
P. O. Box 11312 Garki-Abuja. Tel: 234-07025403819, 08140439415

Email: secretariat@tmgng.org. tmgabuja@yahoo.com

Blog:www.tmgnigeria.wordpress.com, Twitter: @TMGNig, Facebook: TMG Nigeria

Website: www.tmgng.org

 

November 20, 2013

Abuja, Nigeria

 

PRESS RELEASE

FESTUS IYAYI’S DEATH-A SAD REFLECTION OF THE NATION’S RECKLESS POLITICS

TMG receive with shock the sudden and ill-timed death of Prof. Festus Iyayi last week. We are saddened by the loss. The wrongful death of any Nigerian and indeed any human saddens us but Iyayi’s death is especially painful to us and the entire labour and human rights community because of what he symbolises; Iyayi was not just an erudite scholar, writer and lecturer; but a radical and thoroughbred social crusader who stood for the Nigerian people.

His death however, is not just another death to be glossed over as his death triggered by the now known indiscriminate and uncouth driving of the Kogi State Governor, Idris Wada’s convoy reflects the reckless politics and power drunken nature of the Nigerian politicians. And while the nation is in a sober reflection mood at this time, we ask government at all levels to perform their mandate henceforth with restraint and maturity.

Not only that, we call for investigations on his death and we urge the Nigerian people to stiffly resist these draconian attitudes to save our nation.

On the last look really, this earthly life is merely an embryonic prelude to a new awakening, for life at its best is not just in longevity or earthly possessions, but living right and making peace with God and with man-that is what determines the legacy you live behind; Iyayi, we believe has done that because he left a committed life behind, and that is something that ought to burn the conscience of the nation and its political and religious leaders who look the other way in the face of injustice; that is what should bother them.

So, we ask the Nigerian people to take a moment today to say a prayer for Prof. Festus Iyayi; say a prayer for the family he has left behind, and more importantly, say a prayer for this nation which we all loves.

 

 

Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi                                                  Chief Eddy Ezurike

Chairman                                                                                       Publicity Secretary

For Media Enquiries, kindly contact Comrade Eneruvie Enakoko on:

+2348033188864, 08094648891;

 media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org and tmg.democracywatch@gmail.com

 

CENTRE FOR CIVIC EDUCATION

   (a.k.a Transition Monitoring Group)

No 5, Abdurrahman Mora Street, Kado Estate, Abuja – Nigeria
P. O. Box 11312 Garki-Abuja. Tel: 234-07025403819, 08140439415

Email: secretariat@tmgng.org. tmgabuja@yahoo.com

Blog: www.tmgnigeria.wordpress.com,

Twitter: @TMGNig or http://www.twitter.com/TMGNig

 Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/CentreforCivicEducationakaTMG

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Website: www.tmgng.org

Preliminary Statement on Anambra Gubernatorial Election

Preliminary Statement on Anambra
Gubernatorial Election
Delivered at Sheraton Hotel & Towers, Abuja on November 17th, 2013

Distinguished guests, our respected partners, stakeholders, ladies and
gentlemen of the media, on behalf of the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG)
Quick Count Working Group I am delighted to welcome you to this press
conference on our preliminary observation findings for the Anambra
Gubernatorial Election held on Saturday, 16 November 2013.
TMG is the premier citizen observer network in the country, comprising over
400 civic organizations, and it has observed all elections since the end of
military rule in 1998/99. For the Anambra Gubernatorial Election, TMG
deployed 633 citizen observers across all senatorial districts and local
government areas (LGAs), by far the largest number of any group. On
Sunday, TMG redeployed 28 observers for the second day of voting in Idemili
North.

Employing the advanced Quick Count methodology, the gold standard for
election observation, TMG’s citizen observers were deployed to a
representative random sample of 300 polling stations located across every
senatorial district and all 21 local government areas (LGAs). Thus, TMG
observers were in every corner of the state, from the capital Awka to the most
remote riverine areas in Ogbaru.
Based on reports from our citizen observers, which they sent in via coded text
message using mobile phones, TMG finds that while many elements of the
Election Day process were adequate, there were serious shortcomings,
including:

1. Late arrival of election materials at polling units – as of 7:30am,
observers reported that only 39% of polling units across the state had
their election materials and by 9am only 43% of polling units were able
to open;
2. No elections in five wards of Idemili North LGA – Abatete, Nkpor I,
Nkpor II, Obosi and Ogidi I. Observers at all 14 sampled polling stations
in these wards reported no election;
3. Individuals with voter’s cards were refused accreditation – at 19% of
polling units, between 6 and 25 people with voter’s cards were denied
accreditation, for whatever reason and could not vote;
4. Simultaneous accreditation and voting (i.e. individuals being allowed to accredit and
vote after accreditation had closed) created the possibility of illegal voting – at 28% of
polling units, 50 or more people were accredited during voting; and
5. A significant number of voters who left polling units after accreditation did not return to
vote – at 31% of polling units, the number of accredited voters exceeded the number
of actual voters by more than 10%.

While INEC should be acknowledged for providing an opportunity to some voters in Idemili
North to vote on Sunday, these shortcomings undermine public confidence in the electoral
process – especially since many of these issues are not new and have plagued past
elections. For the 2015 elections to be credible, INEC must work in partnership with
political parties, civic organizations, and government bodies to find practical solutions to
these problems.

Methodology

TMG is a member of the Global Network of Domestic Election Monitors (GNDEM), as well
as the West African of Election Observer Network (WAEON) and conducts all of its citizen
observation efforts in accordance with the “Declaration of Global Principles for
Nonpartisan Election Observation and Monitoring by Citizen Organisations.”
TMG’s innovative Quick Count observation effort is intended to help promote credible
elections in Nigeria that are conducted in accordance with international and regional
standards as well as the laws of our country by providing real time independent nonpartisan
information on the conduct of Election Day processes – setup of polling units,
accreditation of voters, voting and counting.

The Quick Count methodology involves deploying trained and accredited citizen observers
in pairs to a representative random sample of polling units carefully selected by a trained
statistician. Because reports are received from a representative sample of polling units,
the findings can be extrapolated to all polling units (even those which TMG did not deploy
observers) based on long-established statistical principles. Thus, the findings from the
Quick Count hold for all 4,608 polling units in Anambra. The Quick Count methodology is
the gold standard in citizen observation.

TMG’s Quick Count also takes advantage of the latest developments in information and
communication technologies (ICTs). TMG has established a National Information Centre
(NIC) in Abuja with a sophisticated database and text messaging system. To ensure real
time information, TMG observers submit their reports via coded text messages using their
mobile phones. Reports are received directly into a database and processed.

Deployment of Observers

TMG deployed a total of 633 observers for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election. Of these,
33 were mobile supervisors who moved around the state and 600 were stationary
assigned to a specific polling units. TMG stationary observers sent in more than 3,000 text
messages with over 20,000 individual pieces of information about the conduct of the
Election Day process.

Stationary observers were deployed in pairs to a representative random sample of 300
polling units across all three senatorial districts and all 21 local government areas (LGAs).
To ensure the representativeness of the sample, it was stratified by senatorial district and
LGA. This means that the proportion of sampled polling units closely matches the
proportion of all polling units in each senatorial district and in each LGA. For example
Anambra North has 30.2% percent of all polling units (1,391 of 4,608) and 30.0% percent
of the sampled polling stations are in Anambra North (180 of 300). Appendix I provides a
detailed breakdown of the sampled polling stations by senatorial district and LGA.
TMG conducted two rounds of training workshops for LGA supervisors as well as 29
training workshops for observers. All observers were accredited with INEC. On the
morning of Election Day, there were isolated incidents of TMG observers not being
permitted to observe, but all of these issues were ultimately resolved.
In response to the INEC decision to extend a second day of voting in Obosi ward in Idemili
North LGA, TMG deployed 28 citizen observers on Sunday to observe the process in the
initially sampled polling units. According to reports from TMG citizen observers on
Saturday, there were similar problems of no elections taking place in Abatete, Nkpor I,
Nkpor II and Ogidi I wards, which are also in Idemili North LGA, as well two polling units in
Ogbaru LGA.

Pre-Election

Elections are more than just Election Day, and TMG has been observing the entire
process for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election.

TMG’s main findings related to the pre-election period include:

1. The judiciary speedily resolved electoral petitions, but the spate of litigation over
party primaries is a worrying sign.
2. INEC’s decision to release the voter’s register to political parties in electronic
format was a very positive improvement. In the future, the voter’s register should
also be made available to civic organisations.
3. INEC should also publish the results of the election by polling unit.
4. An encouraging development was the holding of candidate debates as it served
as an opportunity to make the election more substantive and issue-based.
However, it did not appear that all 23 gubernatorial candidates engaged in serious
campaigning.
5. There were widespread allegations of the buying up of voter cards by politicians.
Setup of Polling Units
There was widespread late delivery of materials that delayed the setup of polling stations
across Anambra. As of 7:30am, only 37% of polling units had their election materials.

When materials finally arrived, at 58% of polling units observers reported two polling
officials; at 38% of polling units three or more polling officials were present; while at just
4% of polling units there was only one polling official present.
Overall, 47% of polling officials were women. At 20% of polling units, observers reported
no female polling officials, while at 44% of polling units one polling official was a woman,
and at 36% two or more polling officials were women.
At 94% of polling units, observers reported the presence of security officials.
At 52% of polling units, observers reported four or more political party agents; at 39% of
polling units, there were one to three political party agents present, while 9% of polling
units had no agents from any party present.

Accreditation of Voters

The widespread late delivery of election materials delayed the start of accreditation of
voters across the state.
By 9am, an hour after the official opening of polls, observers reported only 43% of polling
units were open.
When accreditation commenced, at 92% of polling units, observers reported no one was
accredited to vote who did not have a voter’s card, and at just 8% of polling units a few
people (fewer than five individuals) were accredited who did not have a voter’s card.
Nowhere did observers report large numbers of people being accredited to vote without
voter’s cards.
At 51% of polling units, observers reported no one with a voter’s card refused
accreditation. However, of concern, at 19% of polling units significant numbers of people
(6 to 25) were refused accreditation despite having presented a voter’s card. While there
are many possible explanations for this, it is nonetheless a worrying trend.
At 96% of polling units, observers reported polling officials making a tick next to the name
of every accredited voter, while at 99% of polling units polling officials marked a finger on
every accredited voter’s left hand with ink.
At only 24% of polling units, observers reported that all accredited voters remained at the
polling stations after being accredited, while at 15% of polling units, half or more of
accredited voters left after being accredited. Though not legally required to remain, if
accredited voters do not remain at their polling unit, it increases the potential for multiple
voting.
At 93% of polling units, observers report no incidents of harassment or intimidation of
voters.

Voting

The widespread late delivery of materials also seriously delayed the start of voting across
the state.
Observers reported that at 39% of polling units, voting had not yet commenced as of 1pm.
As of 2pm, 10% of polling units voting had still not started.
When voting commenced, at 99% of polling units observers report the ballot box was
shown to be empty before being closed and locked, and at 93% of polling units the polling
unit was set up so voters could mark their ballot in secret.
At 97% of polling units observers reported no one was allowed to vote without first
showing his/her voter’s card. At 100% of polling units, observers reported that the polling
official made a tick next to the name of every voter in the voters register.
At 99% of polling stations, observers reported all ballot papers were stamped and signed
before being given to voters, and at 97% of polling stations every voter had a finger on
his/her right hand marked with ink.
At 28% of polling units, observers reported that more than 50 or more people were
accredited to vote during voting. At another 17% of polling units, 26 to 50 people were
accredited to vote during voting. In both cases, this creates the potential for illegal voting.
At only 58% of polling stations was no one accredited to vote during voting.
However at 31% of polling units, the number of accredited voters exceeded the number of
actual voters by more than 10%. This suggests that a significant number of accredited
voters who depart polling units after being accredited do not return to vote.
At 11% of polling units observers reported incidents of harassment during voting.

Counting

At 95% of polling units observers reported that all of the political party agents present
agreed with the official results as announced by INEC. In particular,
 At 1% of polling units APC agents disagreed with the official results;
 At 2% of polling units APGA agents disagreed with the official results;
 At 1% of polling units LP agents disagreed with the official results; and
 At 2% of polling units PDP agents disagreed with the official results.
At 96% of polling units, observers reported the results were posted in a public place.
In only 3% of polling units did observers report any incidents of harassment or intimidation
during the counting of ballots.
At 100% of polling units, observers reported that they agreed that the ballots were
properly counted, and the announced results reflected the ballots cast.

Conclusion

The Anambra Gubernatorial Election is not yet over. TMG calls on all the people of
Anambra State to remain calm as they await INEC’s announcement of results. TMG will
continue to observe the process, and as appropriate issue additional statements and
reports. As part of the Quick Count, TMG will provide independent verification of the
official results as announced by INEC to enhance the transparency and accountability of
the process.

God Bless Nigeria. Thank you for your attention.

Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi
Chairman

Media Contact Person:
Eneruvie Enakoko
08094648891, 08033188864
renokoko@yahoo.com

 

Appendix 1: Distribution of INEC Polling Stations and TMG Quick Count Sample by
Senatorial District for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election
Senatorial District
INEC Polling
Units
Percent of
INEC Polling
Units
Sampled
Polling Units
Percent of
Sampled Polling
Units
Anambra Central 1,548 33.5% 102 34.0%
Anambra North 1,391 30.2% 90 30.0%
Anambra South 1,669 36.2% 108 36.0%
Total 4,608 100.0% 300 100.0%
Appendix 2: Distribution of INEC Polling Stations and TMG Quick Count Sample by
Local Government Area for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election
LGA
INEC Polling
Units
Percent of
INEC Polling
Units
Sampled
Polling Units
Percent of
Sampled Polling
Units
Aguata 300 6.5% 19 6.3%
Anambra East 200 4.3% 13 4.3%
Anambra West 158 3.4% 10 3.3%
Anaocha 310 6.7% 20 6.7%
Awka North 130 2.8% 9 3.0%
Awka South 255 5.5% 17 5.7%
Ayamelum 173 3.8% 11 3.7%
Dunukofia 146 3.2% 10 3.3%
Ekwusigo 175 3.8% 11 3.7%
Idemili North 306 6.6% 20 6.7%
Idemili South 200 4.3% 13 4.3%
Ihiala 278 6.0% 18 6.0%
Njikoka 201 4.4% 13 4.3%
Nnewi North 198 4.3% 12 4.0%
Nnewi South 295 6.4% 20 6.7%
Ogbaru 293 6.4% 19 6.3%
Onitsha North 201 4.4% 13 4.3%
Onitsha South 200 4.3% 13 4.3%
Orumba North 231 5.0% 16 5.3%
Orumba South 192 4.2% 12 4.0%
Oyi 166 3.6% 11 3.7%
Total 4,608 100.0% 300 100.0%

TMG Anambra Preliminary EDay Press Release 17 Nov 13 vF (PDF)-INEC Must Enhance Public Confidence in Electoral Process for 2015

INEC Must Enhance Public Confidence in
Electoral Process for 2015
November 17, 2013
Abuja Nigeria

The Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) has shared the preliminary findings from its observation of the Anambra Gubernatorial Election today.

Based on reports from TMG’s 633 citizen observers deployed across all three senatorial districts
and all 21 LGAs, TMG finds that while many elements of the Election Day process were adequate,

there were serious shortcomings, including:

1. Late arrival of election materials at polling units – as of 7:30am, observers reported that
only 39% of polling units across the state had their election material, and by 9am only
43% of polling units were able to open;

2. No elections took place in five wards of Idemili North LGA – Abatete, Nkpor I, Nkpor II,
Obosi and Ogidi I. Observers at all 14 sampled polling stations in these wards reported no
election;

3. Individuals with voter’s card were refused accreditation – at 19% of polling units between
6 and 25 people with voter’s cards were denied accreditation, for whatever reason, and
could not vote;

4. Simultaneous accreditation and voting (i.e. individuals being allowed to accredit and vote
after accreditation had closed) created the possibility of illegal voting – at 28% of polling
units 50 or more people were accredited during voting; and

5. A significant number of voters who left polling units after accreditation did not return to
vote – at 31% of polling units, the number of accredited voters exceeded the number of
actual voters by more than 10%.

While the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) should be acknowledged for
providing an opportunity to some voters in Idemili North to vote on Sunday, these shortcomings
undermine public confidence in the electoral process – especially since many of these issues are not new and have plagued past elections.

TMG Chair Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi said, “For the 2015 elections to be credible INEC
must work in partnership with political parties, civic organizations, and government bodies
to find practical solutions to chronic problems plaguing our elections.”

TMG is the premier citizen observer network in the country comprising over 400 civic
organizations and has observed all elections since the end of military rule in 1998/99.
For the Anambra Gubernatorial Election TMG employed the advanced Quick Count methodology,

the gold standard for election observation, TMG’s citizen observers were deployed to a
representative random sample of 300 polling stations located across every senatorial district and all 21 local government areas (LGAs). Thus, TMG observers were in every corner of the state, from the capital Awka to the most remote riverine areas. On Sunday, TMG redeployed 28
observers for the second day of voting in Idemili North.

Throughout the day TMG’s citizen observers sent their observation reports via coded text
message using mobile phones directly into a computer database located at a National Information Centre (NIC) in Abuja. In total, they sent in more than 3,000 text messages containing more than 20,000 individual pieces of information about Election Day processes, as well as the official results as announced by INEC official at polling units.

“TMG stands ready to work with INEC and other partners to help ensure the 2015 Elections
meet the expectations of the Nigerian people,” said TMG Chair Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi.
The Anambra Gubernatorial Election is not yet over. TMG calls on all the people of Anambra State to remain calm as they await INEC’s announcement of results. TMG will continue to observe the process, and as appropriate issue additional statements and reports. As part of the Quick Count, TMG will provide independent verification of the official results as announced by INEC to enhance the transparency and accountability of the process.

Media Contact Person:
Eneruvie Enakoko
08094648891, 08033188864
renakoko@yahoo.com
### END ###

Text of Post Anambra Gubernatorial Election presented by the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) at the Sheraton Hotels & Towers, Abuja on Monday, November 18, 2013

Text of Post Anambra Gubernatorial Election presented by the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) at the Sheraton Hotels & Towers, Abuja on Monday, November 18, 2013

Distinguished guests, our respected partners, stakeholders, ladies and gentlemen of the media, on behalf of the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) Quick Count Working Group I am delighted to welcome you to this Press Conference on our preliminary observation findings for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election held on Saturday, 16 November 2013. Yesterday, TMG made public its preliminary observations. Today, and for the benefit of those of you who were not here yesterday, we shall respond to the latest developments which has also warranted INEC to declare the elections inconclusive and then the prospects fore a supplementary elections in Anambra State.

TMG Pre-Election Findings

Elections are more than just Election Day, and TMG has been observing the entire process for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election.

TMG’s main findings related to the pre-election period include:

1.        The judiciary speedily resolved electoral petitions, but the spate of litigation over

           Party Primaries is a worrying sign.

2.        INEC’s decision to release the voter’s register to political parties in electronic

           format was a very positive improvement. In the future, the voter’s register should

           also be made available to civic organisations.

3.        INEC should also publish the results of the election by polling unit.

4.        An encouraging development was the holding of candidate debates as it served

           as an opportunity to make the election more substantive and issue-based. 

           However, it did not appear that all 23 gubernatorial candidates engaged in 

           serious campaigning.

5.       There were widespread allegations of the buying up of voter cards by politicians.

 

 

TMG Post-Election Findings

TMG wishes to state as regards the November 16, 2013 Anambra Governorship Polls, based on reports from our citizen observers, which they sent in via coded text message using mobile phones, that while many elements of the Election Day process were adequate, there were serious shortcomings, including:

1. Late arrival of election materials at polling units – as of 7:30am, observers

reported that only 39% of polling units across the state had their election materials and by 9am only 43% of polling units were able to open; When materials finally arrived, at 58% of polling units observers reported two polling officials; at 38% of polling units three or more polling officials were present; while at just 4% of polling units there was only one polling official present.

1. The widespread late delivery of election materials delayed the start of

            accreditation of voters across the state.

1. Simultaneous accreditation and voting (i.e. individuals being allowed to accredit and

vote after accreditation had closed) created the possibility of illegal voting – at 28% of polling units 50 or more people were accredited during voting.

1. No elections in five wards of Idemili North LGA – Abatete, Nkpor I, Nkpor II,

            Obosi and Ogidi I. Observers at all 14 sampled polling stations in these wards

            reported no election;

1. Individuals with voter’s cards were refused accreditation – at 19% of polling units,

between 6 and 25 people with voter’s cards were denied accreditation, for whatever reason and could not vote; Simultaneous accreditation and voting (i.e. individuals being allowed to accredit and vote after accreditation had closed) created the possibility of illegal voting – at 28% of polling units, 50 or more people were accredited during voting; and

1. A significant number of voters who left polling units after accreditation did not

return to vote – at 31% of polling units, the number of accredited voters exceeded the number of actual voters by more than 10%.

1. At 52% of polling units, observers reported four or more political party agents; at

39% of polling units, there were one to three political party agents present, while 9% of polling units had no agents from any party present.

Methodology

TMG as a member of the Global Network of Domestic Election Monitors (GNDEM), as well as the West African of Election Observer Network (WAEON) conducts all of its citizen observation efforts in accordance with the “Declaration of Global Principles for Nonpartisan Election Observation and Monitoring by Citizen Organisations.”

TMG’s innovative Quick Count observation effort is intended to help promote credible elections in Nigeria that are conducted in accordance with international and regional standards as well as the laws of our country by providing real time independent non-partisan information on the conduct of Election Day processes – setup of polling units, accreditation of voters, voting and counting.

The Quick Count methodology involves deploying trained and accredited citizen observers in pairs to a representative random sample of polling units carefully selected by a trained statistician. Because reports are received from a representative sample of polling units, the findings can be extrapolated to all polling units (even those which TMG did not deploy observers) based on long-established statistical principles. Thus, the findings from the Quick Count hold for all 4,608 polling units in Anambra. The Quick Count methodology is the gold standard in citizen observation.

TMG’s Quick Count also takes advantage of the latest developments in information and communication technologies (ICTs). TMG has established a National Information Centre (NIC) in Abuja with a sophisticated database and text messaging system. To ensure real time information, TMG observers submit their reports via coded text messages using their mobile phones. Reports are received directly into a database and processed.

Deployment of Observers

TMG deployed a total of 633 observers for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election. Of these, 33 were mobile supervisors who moved around the state and 600 were stationary assigned to specific polling units. TMG stationary observers sent in more than 3,000 text messages with over 20,000 individual pieces of information about the conduct of the Election Day process. Stationary observers were deployed in pairs to a representative random sample of 300 polling units across all three senatorial districts and all 21 local government areas (LGAs). To ensure the representativeness of the sample, it was stratified by senatorial district and LGA. This means that the proportion of sampled polling units closely matches the proportion of all polling units in each senatorial district and in each LGA. For example Anambra North has 30.2% percent of all polling units (1,391 of 4,608) and 30.0% percent of the sampled polling stations are in Anambra North (180 of 300). Appendix 1 provides a detailed breakdown of the sampled polling stations by senatorial district and LGA.

TMG conducted two rounds of training workshops for LGA supervisors as well as 29 training workshops for observers. All observers were accredited with INEC. On the morning of Election Day, there were isolated incidents of TMG observers not being permitted to observe, but all of these issues were ultimately resolved.

In response to the INEC decision to extend a second day of voting in Obosi ward in Idemili North LGA, TMG deployed 28 citizen observers on Sunday to observe the process in the initially sampled polling units. According to reports from TMG citizen observers on Saturday, there were similar problems of no elections taking place in Abatete, Nkpor I, Nkpor II and Ogidi I wards, which are also in Idemili North LGA, as well two polling units in Ogbaru LGA.

TMG as the premier citizen observer network in the country comprising over 400 civic organizations has observed all elections since the end of military rule in 1998/99.

For the Anambra Gubernatorial Election TMG employed the advanced Quick Count methodology, the gold standard for election observation, TMG’s citizen observers were deployed to a representative random sample of 300 polling stations located across every senatorial district and all 21 local government areas (LGAs). Thus, TMG observers were in every corner of the state, from the capital Awka to the most remote riverine areas. On Sunday as we have noted earlier, TMG redeployed 28 observers for the second day of voting in Idemili North. Throughout the day TMG’s citizen observers sent their observation reports via coded text message using mobile phones directly into a computer database located at a National Information Centre (NIC) in Abuja. In total, they sent in more than 3,000 text messages containing more than 20,000 individual pieces of information about Election Day processes, as well as the official results as announced by INEC official at polling units.

INEC Declaration on Anambra Election

While the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) should be acknowledged for providing an opportunity for election to be conducted in Obosi Ward of Idemili North LGA on Sunday, November 17, 2013, TMG wonders why the remaining Wards of Abatete, Nkpor 1, Nkpor II, and Ogidi 1 Wards, as well as two polling units in Ogbaru LGA which have similar problems of no election were not taken into consideration. We must note that these shortcomings undermine public confidence in the electoral process – especially since many of these issues are not new and have plagued past elections.

Conclusion

TMG salutes INEC’s courage to accept responsibility for failure of their official, whom they claimed was working for outside interest; and whom they say has been handed over to the police for investigation. We challenge INEC, the Security Agencies and the Federal Government to expose the outside interest. But that is however not enough; INEC must be move beyond that; the identity of the alleged collaborators and those they are working with must be exposed. Anambrarians and indeed the Nigerian people deserve to know this.

 

The Anambra Gubernatorial Election is not yet over. As you are already aware, the election has been declared inconclusive following the cancellation of the votes in some areas. That cancellation according to INEC affected 113, 113 votes which also led to the inability of a clear winner to emerge. For that reason a supplementary election is to be held in all the said areas. As a result, TMG will continue to observe the unfolding process as INEC makes public the arrangement for the supplementary elections. TMG calls on all the people of Anambra State to remain calm as they await INEC’s announcement of results. TMG will continue to observe the process, and as appropriate issue additional statements and reports. As part of the Quick Count, TMG will provide independent verification of the official results as announced by INEC to enhance the transparency and accountability of the process.

TMG insists that for the 2015 elections to be credible INEC must work in partnership with political parties, civic organizations, and government bodies to find practical solutions to chronic problems plaguing our elections. To this end, TMG stands ready to work with INEC and other partners to help ensure the 2015 Elections meet the expectations of the Nigerian people”

Thank you for your attention; God bless Nigeria.

 

Comrade Zikirilluhi M. Ibrahim

Chairman

 

For Media Enquiries, contact

Comrade Eneruvie Enakoko

TMG Media Centre

08033188864, 08094648891

media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org, tmg.democracywatch@tmgng.org

 

TMG Confirms Accuracy of Partial INEC Results for Anambra Gubernatorial Election

TMG Confirms Accuracy of Partial INEC
Results for Anambra Gubernatorial Election
November 19th, 2013
Abuja, Nigeria

“Based on the Quick Count methodology, the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG)
can confidently verify that the collation process was done properly and the official
results as announced by INEC on November 18th, 2013 accurately reflect the votes
cast on Election Day at those polling stations which held elections,” said TMG
Chair Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi

The Quick Count methodology allows for the independent verification of the official results
as announced by INEC. Since citizen observers are deployed to a representative random
sample across all three senatorial districts and 21 LGAs, the official results can be
collected from those sampled polling units and added together to estimate the official
INEC result. If the official result as announced by INEC falls within the margin of error of
the Quick Count estimate it means that the official result announced by INEC accurately
reflects the ballot cast at polling units.
Table 1: Comparison of Official INEC Results from November 18th, 2013 with TMG Quick Count
Estimates for Anambra Gubernatorial Election 2013
Political Party
Quick
Count
Estimate
Margin of
Error
Quick Count
Estimate
Range
Official
INEC
Result
Official INEC
Result within
Quick Count
Estimate Range

APC 23.8% 2.4% 21.4% – 26.2% 21.5% Yes
APGA 40.8% 2.8% 37.0% – 43.6% 40.7% Yes
LP 7.9% 2.5% 5.4% – 10.4% 8.7% Yes
PDP 21.4% 2.2% 19.2% – 23.6% 22.1% Yes
Other 19 Parties 2.9% 0.5% 2.4% – 3.4% 3.2% Yes
Rejected Ballots 3.1% 0.5% 2.6% – 3.6% 3.9% No

For each political party the official INEC result falls within the Quick Count estimate range.
For example the official INEC result for Labour Party is 8.7% which falls within the TMG
Quick Count estimated range for Labour Party meaning that the result is independently
verified. It is only if an official INEC results falls far outside the TMG Quick Count
estimated range that TMG cannot independently verify its accuracy.

The TMG Quick Count cannot definitively indicate if APC or PDP is currently in second
place. According to the TMG Quick Count estimates the lowest statistically possible
percent of the vote for APC is 21.4% while the highest statistically possible percent of the
vote for PDP is 23.6%. Because these values overlap statistically APC and PDP are
currently in a tie for second place.
Only INEC declares official results as INEC is the constitutionally mandated body to
conduct all aspects of elections. TMG does not announce official results. It provides
independent verification of the official results as announced by INEC to enhance
transparency and accountability in the electoral process.

As TMG has reported before, the process was not without serious shortcomings, including
most concerning no elections in five wards of Idemili North which is a party stronghold.
These shortcomings undermine public confidence in the electoral process – especially
since many of these issues are not new and have plagued past elections.
TMG Chair Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi said “For the 2015 elections to be credible,

INEC must work in partnership with political parties, civic organizations, and government
bodies to find practical solutions to these problems.”

TMG Media Centre
08033188864 or 08094648891
media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org, or democracywatch@tmgng.org

Verification of INEC Official Results for Anambra

Verification of INEC Official Results for
Anambra (as Announced Nov 18th, 2013)
Delivered at Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) National Secretariat on
November 19th, 2013

Distinguished guests, our respected partners, stakeholders, ladies and
gentlemen of the media, on behalf of the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG)
Quick Count Working Group I am delighted to welcome you to this press
conference on our preliminary observation findings for the Anambra
Gubernatorial Election held on Saturday November 16th, 2013.
The Independent National Election Commission (INEC) has now publicly
announced official results for 4,400 of 4,608 of polling stations for the
Anambra Gubernatorial Election. While a date has not yet been publicised,
INEC has announced that supplemental voting for 208 polling units of which
160 are in Idemili North local government area (LGA).
Based on the Quick Count methodology, TMG can confidently verify that
the collation process was done properly and the official results as
announced by INEC on November 18th, 2013 accurately reflect the votes
cast on Election Day at those polling stations which held elections.
The official INEC results for each candidate closely match TMG’s independent
estimates – which are based on polling unit results collected from a
representative random sample of polling units across all three senatorial
districts and all 21 LGAs.
Only INEC declares official results as INEC is the constitutionally mandated
body to conduct all aspects of elections. TMG does not announce official
results. It provides independent verification of the official results as announced
by INEC to enhance transparency and accountability in the electoral process.
As TMG has reported before, the process was not without serious
shortcomings, including:
1. Late arrival of election materials to polling units;
2. No elections in five wards of Idemili North LGA – this issue is particularly
worrisome as Idemili North is a party stronghold;
3. Individuals with voter’s cards were refused accreditation;

4. Simultaneous accreditation and voting (i.e. individuals being allowed to accredit
and vote after accreditation had closed) created the possibility of illegal voting;
and
5. A significant number of voters who left polling units after accreditation did not
return to vote (thereby disenfranchising themselves).
These shortcomings undermine public confidence in the electoral process – especially
since many of these issues are not new and have plagued past elections. For the 2015
elections to be credible, INEC must work in partnership with political parties, civic
organizations, and government bodies to find practical solutions to these problems.

Methodology

TMG is a member of the Global Network of Domestic Election Monitors (GNDEM) as well
as the West African Election Observer Network (WAEON) and conducts all of its citizen
observation efforts in accordance with the “Declaration of Global Principles for
Nonpartisan Election Observation and Monitoring by Citizen Organisations”.
TMG’s innovative Quick Count observation effort is intended tohelp promote credible
elections in Nigeria which are conducted in accordance with international and regional
standards as well as the laws of our country by providing real time independent nonpartisan
information on the conduct of Election Day processes – setup of polling units,
accreditation of voters, voting and count.
The Quick Count methodology involves deploying trained and accredited citizen observers
in pairs to a representative random sample of polling units carefully selected by a trained
statistician. Because reports are received from a representative sample of polling units,
the findings can be extrapolated to all polling units (even thosewhich TMG did not deploy
observers) based on long established statistical principles. Thus, the findings from the
Quick Count hold for all 4,608 polling units in Anambra. The Quick Count methodology is
the gold standard in citizen observation.
TMG’s Quick Count also takes advantage of the latest developments in information and
communication technologies (ICTs). TMG has established a National Information Centre
(NIC) in Abuja with a sophisticated database and text messaging system. To ensure real
time information, TMG observers submit their reports via coded text messages using their
mobile phones. Reports are received directly into a database and processed.

Deployment of Observers

TMG deployed a total of 633 observers for the Anambra Gubernatorial Election. Of these
33 were mobile supervisors who moved around the state and 600 were stationary
assigned to a specific polling units. TMG stationary observers sent in more than 3,000 text
messages with over 20,000 individual pieces of information about the conduct of the
Election Day process.
Stationary observers were deployed in pairs to a representative random sample of 300
polling units across all three senatorial districts and all 21 local government areas

(LGAs).To ensure the representativeness of the sample it was stratified by senatorial
district and LGA. This means that the proportion of sampled polling units closely matches
the proportion of all polling units in each senatorial district and in each LGA. For example
Anambra North has 30.2% percent of all polling units (1,391 of 4,608) and 30.0% percent
of the sampled polling stations are in Anambra North (180 of 300). Appendix I and II
provide a detailed breakdown of the sampled polling stations by senatorial district and
LGA.

Verification of Official INEC Results

The Quick Count methodology allows for the independent verification of the official results
as announced by INEC. Since citizen observers are deployed to a representative random
sample across all three senatorial districts and 21 LGAs, the official results can be
collected from those sampled polling units and added together to estimate the official
INEC result. If the official result as announced by INEC falls within the margin of error of
the Quick Count estimate it means that the official result announced by INEC accurately
reflects the ballot cast at polling units.
Table 1: Comparison of Official INEC Results from November 18th, 2013 with TMG Quick Count
Estimates for Anambra Gubernatorial Election 2013
Political Party
Quick
Count
Estimate
Margin of
Error
Quick Count
Estimate
Range
Official
INEC
Result
Official INEC
Result within
Quick Count
Estimate Range

APC       23.8% 2.4% 21.4% – 26.2% 21.5% Yes
APGA     40.8% 2.8% 37.0% – 43.6% 40.7% Yes
LP     7.9% 2.5% 5.4% – 10.4% 8.7% Yes
PDP       21.4% 2.2% 19.2% – 23.6% 22.1% Yes
Other 19 Parties 2.9% 0.5% 2.4% – 3.4% 3.2% Yes
Rejected Ballots 3.1% 0.5% 2.6% – 3.6% 3.9% No

For each political party the official INEC result falls within the Quick Count estimate range.
For example the official INEC result for Labour Party is 8.7% which falls within the TMG
Quick Count estimated range for Labour Party meaning that the result is independently
verified. It is only if an official INEC results falls far outside the TMG Quick Count
estimated range that TMG cannot independently verify its accuracy.
The TMG Quick Count cannot definitively indicate if APC or PDP is currently in second
place. According to the TMG Quick Count estimates the lowest statistically possible
percent of the vote for APC is 21.4% while the highest statistically possible percent of the
vote for PDP is 23.6%. Because these values overlap statistically APC and PDP are
currently in a tie for second place.
INEC did report a slightly higher percentage of rejected ballots than TMG’s Quick Count
estimates. However the difference is less than 1% and would have no material impact on
the outcome of the election.

Thus, TMG can confidently confirm that the official results as announced by INEC reflect
the ballots cast at the 4,400 polling units that held election in Anambra State on November
16, 2013.
Again, only INEC declares official results as INEC is the constitutionally mandated body to
conduct all aspects of elections. TMG does not announce official results. It provides
independent verification of the official results as announced by INEC to enhance
transparency and accountability in the electoral process. The official results announced to
date by INEC are not for all 4,608 polling units in Anambra, but for only the 4,400 which
have voted to date.

Conclusion
The Anambra Gubernatorial Election is not yet over. While it is mathematically possible for
either the APC or PDP candidate to overtake the current leading APGA candidate, it
would require 100% turnout of the 113,113 voters in the 208 polling units with
Supplemental Voting and for either the APC or PDP candidate to win 70% of the vote. No
party won 70% of the vote in any LGA on Election Day. Further, if turnout is similar to that
of November 16th, 2013 and less than 30% voters go to the polls for Supplemental Voting
then it will not be possible for the outcome of the Anambra gubernatorial election to
change from the one announced by INEC on November 18th, 2013.
As a result, TMG will continue to observe the unfolding process as INEC makes public
arrangements for the Supplemental Voting elections. TMG calls on all the people of
Anambra State to remain calm as they await INEC’s announcement of the final results for
all 4,608 polling units. TMG will deploy to Anambra to observe the Supplemental Voting
and, as appropriate, issue additional statements and reports.
TMG encourages INEC to enhance transparency in the collation process by immediately
publishing the names and locations of the 208 polling units that will have Supplemental
Voting and after the complete official results are announced publishing not only the results
for the entire state and for the 21 LGAs, but also for all 4,608 polling units. This will greatly
increase the confidence of the public as well as political contestants that the announced
results accurately reflect the votes cast at polling units.
TMG insists that for the 2015 elections to be credible INEC must work in partnership with
political parties, civic organisations and government bodies to find practical solutions to
the chronic problems plaguing our elections. To this end, TMG stands ready to work with
INEC and other partners to help ensure the 2015 elections meet the expectations of the
Nigerian people.
Finally, TMG wish to restate its call and demand on INEC, security agency and the
Federal Government of Nigeria to make public the “outside interest” that sponsored
INEC Electoral Officer to sabotage the Anambra elections. Nigerians reserved the right to
know the interest undermining their progress. If armed robbers and petty thieves have
been paraded in the past by the police for their offences even before they are taken to
court, we do not see any cogent reason why the perpetrators of this dastard act will not be
named and shamed to serve as deterrent to others. We see “due process” in this matter
as a way of cover up just like cases in the past.

Impunity must stop in Nigeria and must not be condoned.
Thank you for your attention.

Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi

TMG Media Centre
08033188864 or 08094648891
media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org, or democracywatch@tmgng.org

Synopsis of TMG’s Pre-Election Press Conference on the November 16, 2013 Anambra Governorship Polls

November 15, 2013

Awka, Anambra State

PRESS RELEASE

On Eve of Anambra Gubernatorial Election,
TMG Calls for All to Play by the Rules

The Transition Monitoring Group (TMG) announced at a press briefing yesterday in Awka that it will employ the advanced Quick Count observation methodology and utilise the latest information and communication technology (ICT) to observe the Anambra gubernatorial election.

The Quick Count methodology will enable TMG to provide real time, representative and statistically valid information on the conduct of the Election Day processes – arrival of staff and materials, setup of the polling unit, accreditation of voters, voting itself and counting of ballot papers – both what goes well and any possible areas of concern

In total TMG will deploy 633 observers of which 600 will be stationed in pairs to representative random sample of polling stations. Throughout Election Day, TMG observers will send to an information centre located in Abuja a total of 3,600 text messages containing 21,600 individual pieces of information about the conduct of Election Day processes. They will also report the official INEC results as announced and posted at polling units.

TMG Chair Comrade Ibrahim M. Zikirullahi said “The Quick Count methodology will make election malpractices a high risk business during the coming election as TMG will have detailed information on the conduct of the election and be able to verify independently the accuracy of the official results as announced by INEC.”

As part of the briefing, TMG also provided information from on the pre-election period. TMG commended the role of the judiciary in speedily resolving electoral petitions, but was concerned about spate of litigation over party primaries. It was noted that INEC had provided political parties with electronic copies of the voters’ registry and TMG called upon INEC to publish the results of the election by polling unit. TMG is encouraged that debates were organised for gubernatorial candidates, but expressed concern that some candidates did not appear to be engaged in serious campaigning. TMG is concerned about the widespread allegations of the buying up of voter cards by politicians. TMG reminded the Security agencies that they should be impartial and neutral in the discharge of their duties during the election.

Finally, TMG called on all registered voters to go out and cast their ballot for the party of their choice on Election Day.

For More Information Contact:
[Comrade Eneruvie Enakoko],
+2348033188864, 08094648891
media@tmgng.org, quickcount@tmgng.org, tmg.democracywatch@gmail.com